FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Ascension, EBR, and Livingston parishes under Flash Flood Warning until 12: 30 p.m.

Updated: May. 20, 2021 at 9:34 AM CDT
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WARNINGS AND WATCHES:

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 p.m. Wednesday evening for the vast majority of the WAFB viewing area, with the watch running through Thursday evening for those west of the Atchafalaya Basin.

Flash flood watch for Wednesday, May 19.
Flash flood watch for Wednesday, May 19.(WAFB)

After a bit of a lull in the heavy rains on Tuesday, it looks as though the threat for locally heavy rainfall will trend higher once again today.

Pinpoint forecast for Wednesday, May 19.
Pinpoint forecast for Wednesday, May 19.(WAFB)

A storm complex approaching from western Louisiana early Wednesday is expected to weaken, but renewed development is expected by late morning into the afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected by this afternoon, with highs topping out in the upper 70s.

The Storm Prediction Center also has our area under a level 1/5 (marginal) risk of severe weather, with a few strong storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail not out of the question.

Sever weather outlook for Wednesday, May 19.
Sever weather outlook for Wednesday, May 19.(WAFB)

I am seeing some signs in our hi-res guidance that have me a bit concerned about the rain potential for today. There are indications that at least some neighborhoods could see repeated rounds of showers and storms over the course of several hours, leading to an increased flood threat. While rain totals may average 1″ to 2″ across our area as a whole, stripes of 3″ to 5″+ appear possible where banding features develop, as shown in the GRAF model.

GRAF forecast
GRAF forecast(WAFB)

Another lull in the rains should develop tonight, but rain chances will remain elevated into Thursday, running 70% or better across our area. With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Flash Flood Watch is extended for at least one more day.

The signal for additional heavy rainfall on Thursday is a bit weaker, but obviously given our saturated conditions, it won’t take that much to cause additional issues.

10 day forecast as of Wednesday, May 19.
10 day forecast as of Wednesday, May 19.(WAFB)

High pressure starts to build into the region from the east by Friday, allowing rain chances to trend lower. Look for a 30% to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday, with highs in the low 80s. High pressure will become firmly entrenched by the weekend, allowing for a much-needed run of dry weather that should last well into next week.

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