Winter timeline breakdown of expected precipitation & road hazards

Published: Jan. 27, 2014 at 4:03 AM CST|Updated: Jun. 2, 2014 at 4:31 PM CDT
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Winter Weather Concerns
Winter Weather Concerns
Projected snowfall is expected to be between 1" - 2" inches of snow.
Projected snowfall is expected to be between 1" - 2" inches of snow.
Expected climate Tuesday via Titan HD
Expected climate Tuesday via Titan HD
Expected climate Wednesday via Titan HD
Expected climate Wednesday via Titan HD

BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - The threat for wintry precipitation here in the WAFB viewing area continues to increase, and we have drafted a general timeline on what could possibly occur this week in the Metro area.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the entire WAFB viewing area Tuesday into Wednesday.  This watch will most certainly be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning Monday.

On Monday an arctic cold front is expected to slip through the viewing area.  Temperatures will be mild to start Monday in the upper 50°s then fall during the afternoon hours.  Off and on scattered rain showers will occur Monday.

Morning and evening commutes Monday will have little problems as wintry precipitation looks to hold off until late Monday night to possibly Tuesday morning.  The afternoon run of weather models continue to indicate a large amount of moisture associated with an upper level low to our west overrunning the arctic cold front and impacting the local area Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Surface temperatures will support wintry precipitation as we look to stay below freezing for the entirety of Tuesday.

We first expect to see freezing rain and sleet moving through the area late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon.  During the mid afternoon and evening hours the freezing rain will transition to snow for metro Baton Rouge.  Areas to the south will most likely remain dealing with freezing rain and sleet until late night Tuesday.

Snow showers will continue around the metro area during the predawn hours Wednesday and this activity will begin to end from NW to SE across the southern sections of viewing area through the remainder of Wednesday morning.

The problem will be that temperatures will not get back above freezing until lunchtime.  That means while winter precipitation may end by sunrise, roads, especially elevated roadways and bridges, will still have a layer of frozen snow and ice for the rest of the morning and possibly early afternoon Wednesday.

Precipitation Timeline Break-Down:

Monday AM: Scattered rain showers.

Monday PM: Scattered rain showers and falling temperatures.  Rains winding down by 7 PM.

Tuesday AM: Lull in shower activity early with wintry mix starting up around 9 AM.

Tuesday PM: Wintry mix begins transitioning to all snow around 4 PM.

Wednesday AM: Snow showers early, then drier.

Road Hazard Timeline:

Monday: No road hazards expected for AM or PM commute.  Could see slick spots on elevated roadways and bridges late (10 PM)

Tuesday AM: Elevated roadways and bridges will have some ice.

Tuesday Midday: Elevated roadways and bridges will see small accumulations of freezing rain and sleet.

Tuesday PM: Surface roadways will begin to see accumulation of ice, sleet, and snow.  Elevated roadways and bridges will see continued accumulation of frozen precipitation.

Wednesday AM: Snow accumulation on top of frozen precipitation on all roadways.

Wednesday PM: Temperatures back above freezing around 12 PM.  Thaw out begins.

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