Rain appears likely for Thanksgiving

Chief Meteorologist Jay Grymes gives the 10 p.m. weather for Monday, Nov. 21.
Published: Nov. 21, 2022 at 4:12 AM CST|Updated: Nov. 21, 2022 at 10:31 PM CST
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A mid-level disturbance is trying to work its way into Louisiana Monday. This system may provide for a few isolated showers, but most will stay dry even with increasing clouds through the day. The clouds will hang around Tuesday, but the weather will stay dry.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21(WAFB)

Temperatures will be trending warmer as we move closer to Thanksgiving. Highs will be in the low 70°s both Wednesday and Thanksgiving afternoons.

Jeff Morrow and the WAFB First Alert weather team provide an update on What We're Tracking Next on Monday, Nov. 21.

Forecast uncertainty continues to creep into the Thanksgiving Day forecast. Model agreement is simply not there with mid and long range models split into 2 camps. The first group of weather models swing a storm system and cold front quickly through the area Thursday.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21(WAFB)

Rain amounts will be manageable with most picking up less than 0.50″. Rain will be likely especially during the early and mid afternoon. The second group of weather models stalls the system in Eastern Texas Thursday limiting rain chances to Thursday evening/night.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21(WAFB)

The storm system slowly works east delivering several rounds of rain Black Friday and also into Saturday. Rainfall totals are greater than 1″ in most spots with a few localized 2-3″ spots possible. Severe weather doesn’t look like a major issue with this group of models.

As of now, the First Alert Storm Team forecast shows off and on rain showers Thursday with lingering sct’d showers into Friday. This is a very low confidence forecast.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Nov. 21(WAFB)

We won’t see much of cool down with this storm system as temperatures stay close to normal by end of week, and then above normal into next week.

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