Goodbye to those mid and upper 90s at least for a while; hello to elevated rain chances throughout the week

Jay Grymes gives the 10 p.m. weather forecast on Monday, June 27.
Published: Jun. 27, 2022 at 6:30 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 27, 2022 at 8:44 PM CDT

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Mother Nature has flipped the script on our June weather with a return of scattered to numerous t-showers this week and a break from the run of near-record high temperature.

Pinpoint: Tuesday
Pinpoint: Tuesday(WAFB)

A disturbance traveling from east-to-west across the northern Gulf and a meandering stationary front across the region will keep our weather unsettled through most of the week. Mornings are expected to be mostly dry but maybe not entirely rain-free while scattered showers and t-storms will pepper the landscape during most afternoons and early evenings.

In the Tropics... Low Pressure Trough
In the Tropics... Low Pressure Trough(WAFB)

Expect morning starts in the low to mid 70°s for metro Baton Rouge through the next seven days. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80°s to around 90° around the viewing area with some WAFB neighborhoods not getting to 90° again until the upcoming weekend. This is a set-up that could produce upwards of 2″ to 4″ of rain for some WAFB communities over the next 7 days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not only tracking that disturbance in the northern Gulf but it’s also watching two areas in the tropical Atlantic. As of Monday afternoon, the NHC is giving the Gulf easterly wave just a 20% chance of development over the next five days as it tracks slowly to the west-southwest. Even if that disturbance were to become a tropical depression (or tropical storm), it looks like its greatest impact will be for Texas, although it continues to produce rain in Louisiana at this time.

In the Tropics... Tropical Wave
In the Tropics... Tropical Wave(WAFB)

Of the two areas being monitored in the tropical Atlantic, the NHC has recently upgraded what was Invest 94L to Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 (PTC #2). The upgrade allows the NHC to begin issuing tropical watches and warnings as well as post a forecast track for the system even though it has not yet been upgraded to a depression or storm. The NHC currently expects PTC #2 (soon to become Bonnie) to maintain a westward track across the southern Caribbean and make landfall in Central America, offering no threat of heading to the Gulf.

The other area of disturbed weather is currently listed with just a 20% chance of development over the next five days. That system is expected to gain latitude as it approaches and enters the eastern Caribbean. At this point, let’s see where it is towards the end of the week before becoming too concerned about it.

10 Day Forecast
10 Day Forecast(WAFB)

Expect a mostly dry, mostly cloudy morning start for Tuesday with Baton Rouge daybreak temperatures in the low to mid 70°s.

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