Threat for strong storms and localized flooding Tuesday morning

Jay Grymes gives the 10 p.m. weather forecast on Monday, April 4.
Published: Apr. 4, 2022 at 11:34 AM CDT|Updated: Apr. 4, 2022 at 5:39 PM CDT
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Monday will be a warm and breezy day. Rain won’t enter the forecast until after sunset.

Early on rain chances will remain limited. But as we go deeper into Tuesday morning showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase. An Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) for severe weather remains in place along and north of the state line. It is in this area that the greatest threat of severe weather will exist Tuesday morning.

Jeff Morrow takes a complete look at the threat of severe weather for the area in connection with a line of storms passing through on Tuesday, April 5.
Future sat/rad for Tuesday, April 5.
Future sat/rad for Tuesday, April 5.(WAFB)

A complex of thunderstorms will be moving out of Texas into Louisiana late Monday into early Tuesday. That complex of storms will continue to track ESE into our local area. The exact path this storm system takes will determine the area that will see the biggest impacts. As of right now, that appears to be mainly north and east of Baton Rouge.

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rain potential will also be heightened in these areas. Damaging wind and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns between 5 a.m. - 10 a.m. Tuesday morning. Embedded within the line we can’t totally rule out a few isolated tornadoes. Rain amounts of 1-3″ are expected with extremely localized spots of 4-5″.

HRRR rainfall amounts for Tuesday, April 5.
HRRR rainfall amounts for Tuesday, April 5.(WAFB)

We will trend drier by Tuesday afternoon. Into Wednesday a strong cold front will push through the local area. A big question mark is just how much moisture will this front have to work with. The general thinking is not much which means only a slight chance for rain will exist Wednesday. The front moves through during the late afternoon/early evening. This front will bring a big change in temperature to end the week. We go from highs in the mid 80°s Wednesday to highs in the upper 60°s Friday.

10 day forecast as of Monday, April 4.
10 day forecast as of Monday, April 4.(WAFB)

Next weekend is shaping up to be a beautiful weather weekend. Skies will remain clear with very comfortable temperatures. Morning starts will have a slight chill in the low to mid 40°s. Temperatures will warm quickly into the afternoon.

A warming trend occurs into the following week as southerly flow returns. A few showers return by the middle of the week.

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