Next cold front could bring risk of storms on Thursday

Jeff Morrow gives the 10 p.m. weather forecast on Sunday, Feb. 13.
Published: Feb. 13, 2022 at 8:36 AM CST|Updated: Feb. 13, 2022 at 4:42 PM CST
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The local area will experience a brief/ light freeze early Valentine’s Day Monday morning. Temperatures will dip below freezing for only a few hours. Take care of people, pets, and plants Sunday night into Monday morning. The rest of Valentine’s Day should be enjoyable. A quick warm up through the morning will yield afternoon highs in the mid 60°s under bright sunny skies. The nice weather will last through Tuesday as we begin a warming trend.

Upcoming rain chances
Upcoming rain chances(WAFB)

The warming trend becomes more drastic Wednesday as strong southerly flow returns ahead of our next storm system. The storm system is forecast to arrive Thursday. Wednesday will be a transitional weather day with increasing clouds and a few afternoon showers.

Potential for storms on Thursday
Potential for storms on Thursday(WAFB)

The main weather event occurs Thursday as the storm system and cold front arrive. The Storm Prediction Center has already place a majority of our area under a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. This does not mean we are guaranteed to see severe weather. For now, the threat appears localized, and we might see one or two strong to possible severe storms. Medium range models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop ahead of our cold front. The timing of this line of storms may ultimately determine how strong it gets. Instability will be greatest by the afternoon which is when this line of storms looks to push into the local area. The front should push through fairly quickly before stalling in the northern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday night. Rain amounts will average between 1-2″ for most with some possible localized higher amounts. The flood threat should be minimal due to the prolonged dry weather we’ve enjoyed recently.

Severe weather threat
Severe weather threat(WAFB)

Temperatures will go from the mid 70°s Thursday to only the mid 50°s Friday. With the stalled front so close to the local area, we may not be able to shake the clouds for the end of the week and weekend. Temperatures will see a gradual increase over the weekend with highs in the low and mid 60°s Saturday and Sunday. We warm up quickly into the following work/school week. A few showers are possible according to long range model trends.

10-day forecast for Monday, Feb. 14 through Wednesday, Feb. 23
10-day forecast for Monday, Feb. 14 through Wednesday, Feb. 23(WAFB)

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