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Beautiful into Saturday, stormy pattern returns next week

Published: Sep. 10, 2021 at 8:10 AM CDT|Updated: Sep. 10, 2021 at 10:41 AM CDT
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - We’ll continue to enjoy a taste of fall for the next couple of days in the wake of a cold front that moved through early Thursday. Morning starts in the low 60s will give way to afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s under generally sunny skies. Although afternoon temps in the 80s aren’t exactly ‘cool’, humidity levels will remain well below-normal, keeping things relatively comfortable for any outdoor plans.

WAFB First Alert Pinpoint Forecast for Friday, Sept. 10, 2021
WAFB First Alert Pinpoint Forecast for Friday, Sept. 10, 2021(WAFB)

A sharp transition in the pattern occurs by Sunday though as tropical moisture begins surging northward. That moisture is tied to an area of disturbed weather currently located in the western Caribbean that is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center continues to increase development odds with this system, placing them at 60% as of the 1 a.m. Friday outlook. Regardless of development or not, rain could very well end up being the biggest impact.

Tropical moisture on the Gulf Coast of the U.S. through Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.
Tropical moisture on the Gulf Coast of the U.S. through Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.(WAFB)
Next 7-day forecast rainfall
Next 7-day forecast rainfall(WAFB)

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Scattered showers and t-storms return to the local area on Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s. Rain and storms then appear likely for the first part of next week as the moisture associated with the Gulf disturbance continues streaming northward. The big question at this point is centered around the placement of the heaviest rainfall. For now, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows the greatest threat from coastal Texas into SW Louisiana, but we’ll have to monitor trends closely because it wouldn’t take much of an eastward shift to deliver some locally heavy rain in our area. For now, the WPC outlook shows a gradient of rain totals across our local area ranging from 1″-4″ over the next 7 days, with generally lower totals the farther east and NE you go and heavier totals to the west and SW of Baton Rouge.

Eye On The Tropics as of Friday, Sept. 10, 2021
Eye On The Tropics as of Friday, Sept. 10, 2021(WAFB)

Elsewhere in the tropics, Larry is still a hurricane with maximum winds of 85 mph as of the 4 a.m. Friday advisory. Larry is lifting north of Bermuda and is expected to threaten parts of Newfoundland by Friday night, where hurricane warnings are currently posted. Closer to Africa, the National Hurricane Center says another tropical depression is likely to form by next week. Development chances are listed at 70% as of the 1 a.m. Friday outlook.

WAFB First Alert 10-Day Forecast for Friday, Sept. 10, through Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021.
WAFB First Alert 10-Day Forecast for Friday, Sept. 10, through Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021.(WAFB)

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