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Major tropical impacts shifting east according to weather models Wednesday

Published: Jun. 16, 2021 at 4:49 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 16, 2021 at 6:36 AM CDT
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A lot of weather attention is on Invest 92-L and rightfully so. Invest 92-L is expected to become a tropical depression by as early as tomorrow as it finally begins its northerly push towards the Central Gulf Coast Region.

Chances for possible tropical development of Invest 92-L as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, June 16, 2021.
Chances for possible tropical development of Invest 92-L as of 7 p.m. Wednesday, June 16, 2021.(WAFB)

Invest 92-L is not expected to rapidly intensify, but regardless of intensity, Invest 92-L will be all about rain and flash flooding. There will also be a limited threat for coastal flooding due to persistent southerly winds through Saturday and a low-end tornado threat especially Friday night into Saturday.

Forecast models this afternoon have shown an eastward shift with the eventual path this feature will take. That is significant for our area as the heaviest rains will be displaced to the east of Invest 92-L. These heaviest rain totals of 5-10″ that were being forecast for our local area have begun to be pushed farther to the east into Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon. This remains a low confidence forecast though.

Major tropical impacts shifting east according to weather models Wednesday
Major tropical impacts shifting east according to weather models Wednesday(WAFB)

The other potential good change with models today is that the forward speed of this system looks to be quicker helping to move Invest 92-L through faster. That means rains won’t be able to sit over the area for several days. So while it appears rainfall totals locally may be more manageable than previously forecast, that does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.

Major tropical impacts shifting east according to weather models Wednesday
Major tropical impacts shifting east according to weather models Wednesday(WAFB)

Tomorrow will be another dry day with highs climbing into the low to mid 90°s. Tomorrow will be a good day to get prepared for potential heavy rain and possibly gusty winds of 30-50 mph. Just take the heat seriously as highs climb into the low to mid 90°s.

Humidity levels will be lower again tomorrow allowing for feels like temperatures to not be too much hotter than the air temperature. Rain will begin to arrive Friday late morning into the afternoon. These outer rain bands will continue some gusty winds and even a potential for tornadoes especially closer to the coast.

Rain will become heavier late Friday into and through most of Saturday. We may be able to see drier weather by as early as Sunday now if the forward speed trend today materializes. Right now rain estimates of 2-5″ are expected across the local area.

There remains potential for localized bullseyes of higher amounts. A Flash Flood Watch is still anticipated for the local area especially on Saturday. As we move into next week rain chances will return to a more typical summertime pattern with daily scattered afternoon showers and t-storms.

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