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Heat Advisory today, heavy rain possible by the weekend

Published: Jun. 14, 2021 at 4:52 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 14, 2021 at 7:25 AM CDT
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - This week will feature a pair of weather headlines along the northern Gulf Coast. In the short term, heat will be our greatest concern as highs climb into the mid 90s and heat index values climb above 100° for the next few days. In the long term, our focus will be on potential tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico and some associated heavy rainfall.

For today, a Heat Advisory has been posted for the majority of the WAFB viewing area from 10 a.m. through 7 p.m. High temperatures will once again reach the mid 90s this afternoon, with the potential for heat index (‘feels like’) values to climb above 105° in some areas.

Pinpoint forecast for Monday, June 14.
Pinpoint forecast for Monday, June 14.(WAFB)

With that, be sure to use common sense if out in the heat for any length of time. Take frequent breaks and drink plenty of clear fluids, preferably water. While the morning hours will generally stay dry, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening, with today’s rain chances around 40%.

Futurecast for Monday, June 14.
Futurecast for Monday, June 14.(WAFB)
10 day forecast as of Monday, June 14.
10 day forecast as of Monday, June 14.(WAFB)

Heat will continue to be our primary concern through midweek as highs continue to top out in the mid 90s and heat index values climb above 100°. Rain chances will run 30%-40% on Tuesday and Wednesday, but any storms that do develop over the next few days could be strong.

We should briefly see some drier weather on Thursday before the threat for rain, possibly heavy, increases into the weekend. That heavy rain threat will be tied to the eventual evolution and track of an area of disturbed weather in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

WPC precipitation forecast for next seven days.
WPC precipitation forecast for next seven days.(WAFB)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has development odds at 20% over the next 2 days and 60% over the next 5 days as of the 7 a.m. Monday outlook. But regardless of development, heavy rain currently appears to the greatest threat along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

Update on the tropics from the NHC as of 7 a.m. on Monday, June 14.
Update on the tropics from the NHC as of 7 a.m. on Monday, June 14.(WAFB)

Unfortunately, confidence is rather low at this point on the location of heaviest rains, with computer guidance showing big swings in the rain bullseyes from run to run. Suffice to say that some part of the northern Gulf Coast could see 5″-10″ or more of rainfall by the weekend, so we will need to monitor trends closely.

And the tropical weather outlook map for the Atlantic basin looks more like one we would expect to see in August or September than in the first half of June. NHC now says that a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today from an area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina. Fortunately, this is moving away from the U.S. and is not a direct threat to any land areas at this point.

NHC is also highlighting an unusually strong tropical wave for June that has emerged from Africa. Development chances are listed at 20% over the next five days because conditions are expected to become more hostile as it tracks farther west. Nonetheless, it is quite rare to see an area mentioned for possible development this far east in the Atlantic this early in the season.

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