Gulf system likely to become tropical depression; heavy rainfall the biggest threat

There is now a 70% chance that a depression forms in the Western Gulf of Mexico this week.
There is now a 70% chance that a depression forms in the Western Gulf of Mexico this week.(WVUE FOX 8)
Published: Jun. 11, 2021 at 8:02 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 14, 2021 at 1:25 PM CDT
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NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - A tropical disturbance currently located in the far southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche is being monitored for tropical development over the coming days.

At this time there is little to no organization with the system in the Bay of Campeche.

It is still way too early to give specific impacts for our area. However, the odds of heavy rain are continuing to increase for Louisiana and Mississippi.

Based on current trends, the most impact we will see could begin as early as late Friday and continue into Saturday and possibly early Sunday.

June is not known for hurricanes but it is known for big, sloppy slow moving storms that can cause tremendous flooding.

Almost all models are in agreement that some type of tropical formation is likely to occur by the end of this week.

As is usually the case with weaker storms early in the season, our big concern will be the heavy rainfall associated with the tropical moisture. Many times these June storms are one-sided with the worst of the weather far removed from the center.

Until we actually get that center formation, the track or potential impacts for our area remains a huge question mark. Make sure you stay tuned to the latest forecast over the coming days and if we were to see any impacts from this system, it wouldn’t be until the end of next week into next weekend.

How long the rain sticks around, how much falls, or even who along the northern Gulf coast is most at risk are all questions that cannot be answered at this time. If and when the system develops and begins moving north, those answers will become clearer by mid to late week!

More: A look back at memorable June tropical systems

Track the tropics in real-time with VIPR radar in the Weather Authority Hurricane Center

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