Hot, humid and mainly dry; highs in the low 90s
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Hot, humid, and mainly dry weather will prevail again today as our area remains under the influence of high pressure.
Look for partly cloudy skies, highs in the low 90s, and heat index values that could peak around 100° or so in many WAFB neighborhoods. A stray shower can’t be ruled out, but the vast majority of us will stay dry.
Heat will continue to be the main headline on Saturday, with highs climbing into the low 90s and heat index values again peaking near or a little above 100° for most. Stray showers will once again be possible during the afternoon, but it’s another day with rain chances at only about 10%.
Uncertainty creeps into the forecast from late Saturday into Sunday. Model guidance is showing the potential for a storm cluster to move into our area anytime from Saturday night into the day on Sunday.
For now, we’ll go with the somewhat slower timing, showing a 50% chance of showers and t-storms on Sunday, with highs in the low 90s.
Fairly typical summer weather will then settle in for the first half of next week, with scattered, mainly afternoon storms each day and highs in the low 90s.
By late in the week, our focus may shift to the Gulf of Mexico and potential tropical development. Confidence isn’t terribly high at this point, but at the very least, we could see an increase in moisture and rain chances by the end of the week.
The National Hurricane Center continues to spotlight the eastern Pacific side of Mexico for potential development, with odds listed at 50% as of the 1 a.m. Friday outlook.
However, it still looks as though some energy from that system will slowly translate into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the weekend and could get a boost from a separate tropical wave moving in from the east.
Guidance continues to signal potential new development in the southern Gulf by early next week, so we’ll need to monitor trends closely. Regardless of development or not, both the GFS and European models are in good agreement right now in showing some of that tropical moisture impacting our local area by late next week into the following weekend. Both models generate rains of 3″-5″+ during that stretch, but given that we’re talking about a forecast 7+ days into the future, confidence in the potential heavy rains is still fairly low at this point.
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