FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Muggy start and warmer weather ahead

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, May 3 - 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible today, but overall things should be quieter than what we experienced on Sunday when some areas picked up locally heavy rainfall. A rather warm and humid day can be expected otherwise, with highs reaching the upper 80s.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms return to the area on Tuesday in association with our next cold front. The day starts out mainly dry, but storms should roll in by afternoon as the front approaches.

Futurecast (GRAF MODEL) for Tuesday, May 4.
Futurecast (GRAF MODEL) for Tuesday, May 4. (Source: WAFB)

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a threat for severe weather, with a north-to-south gradient in threat levels in their outlook released early on Monday. Areas near and north of the state line are now under a level 3/5 (enhanced) risk of severe weather, areas along the I-10/I-12 corridor are under a 2/5 (slight) risk, and areas generally south of I-10 are under a 1/5 (marginal) risk.

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 4.
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 4. (Source: WAFB)

While a Flash Flood Watch is not currently posted, locally heavy rainfall is again possible. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has the majority of our viewing area under a level 2/4 (slight) risk of flooding on Tuesday. The outlook calls for 0.75″-1.50″ of rain on average, but locally higher amounts will be possible, especially with some potential that the front will slow its forward progress as it moves through the area.

Flood risk from Tuesday, May 4 - Wednesday, May 5.
Flood risk from Tuesday, May 4 - Wednesday, May 5. (Source: WAFB)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into early Wednesday as the front slows down, but the vast majority of us should be dry by Wednesday afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front, with Wednesday’s highs near 80 degrees.

WPC precipitation forecast-wafb
WPC precipitation forecast-wafb (Source: WAFB)

We’ll then get to enjoy a rather nice run of weather from Wednesday afternoon into at least Saturday, with generally dry weather expected and temperatures running near or slightly below normal. The extended outlook suggests a slight chance of rain may return from Sunday into early next week.

10 day forecast as of Monday, May 3.
10 day forecast as of Monday, May 3. (Source: WAFB)

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