FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Near record highs today, rain likely tomorrow

FIRST ALERT 10 P.M. FORECAST: Thursday, April 29

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Breezy, warm, and humid weather continues today as highs again climb to near 90°. We tied the record high of 90° on Wednesday and will be close to today’s record of 91° last set in 1955.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

A stray shower will be possible by this afternoon and evening, but the vast majority of us will stay dry.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

Guidance begins to diverge as soon as tonight on the potential for rainfall in our area. The HRRR model is most aggressive, showing a healthy line of showers and t-storms approaching by early Friday morning.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

By contrast, several other guidance products keep us fairly dry through early Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center is acknowledging the potential for an HRRR-like scenario and now has a Level 1/5 (marginal) risk of severe weather posted for areas northwest of Baton Rouge from late tonight into early Friday.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

Rain chances should climb on Friday as a slow-moving cold front moves into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and a few t-storms can be expected from late morning into the afternoon.

Having said that, I’ve got Friday’s rain chances posted around 60%, meaning some of you could very well miss out on the rain. There doesn’t appear to be much of a threat for severe weather or heavy rainfall, so those will serve as silver linings to an otherwise gloomy final day of April.

An upper-level storm system will temporarily stall to our west, meaning rain chances will continue into the weekend. However, we’ve only got a slight chance of showers in the forecast on Saturday, with good rain chances returning on Sunday.

Locally heavy rainfall can’t be ruled out on Sunday, but we’ll monitor that potential over the next day or two. The Storm Prediction Center has also introduced a Level 2/5 (slight) risk of severe weather for areas north of I-12 on Sunday.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

Looking ahead, scattered rains will remain possible during the early part of the week, with good rain chances expected to return on Wednesday (Cinco de Mayo) in association with a cold front.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

The week will start out with above-normal temperatures and readings should end up closer to normal during the latter part of the week.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29
FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, April 29 (Source: WAFB)

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