FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Good rain chance prior to Thanksgiving

Updated: Nov. 22, 2020 at 7:39 AM CST
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The local weather will stay dry to conclude the weekend. Skies will remain fair with just a few clouds. Afternoon temperatures Sunday will top out in the upper 70°s. The forecast changes some overnight as a weak cold front pushes through the area.

Monday afternoon will see cooler temperatures, but highs will remain a few degrees above late November norms. Temperatures quickly rebound on account of southerly flow by Tuesday afternoon.

Thanksgiving Day forecast
Thanksgiving Day forecast(WAFB)

Another cold front looks to arrive prior to Thanksgiving. This cold front will have more moisture to work with thanks to the return of southerly flow. Expect rain and a few thunderstorms at some point Wednesday. Long range models continue to disagree slightly on exact timing of Wednesday’s rains. Rains could be most widespread by mid to late morning or early to mid afternoon.

Upcoming rain chances as of Sunday, Nov. 22
Upcoming rain chances as of Sunday, Nov. 22(WAFB)

One or two strong thunderstorms will be possible, but a widespread severe weather outbreak appears unlikely. Once the cold front passes, don’t expect a big drop off in temperature. This front will have Pacific Ocean origins, meaning that the temperature change won’t be drastic.

Euro model
Euro model(WAFB)

Long range models have begun to suggest we could squeeze out a lingering shower Thanksgiving Day Thursday. Until we start to see run-to-run weather model consistency, I’ll keep the forecast dry for now adding partly to mostly cloudy skies to Thursday’s forecast.

A strong, Canadian cold front is set to arrive next weekend. Exact timing still needs to be worked out. It appears that rain will be likely for at least one of the days next weekend. We could also see a few strong storms again. Temperatures will take a more significant dip after this particular front works through.

Possible tropical development
Possible tropical development(WAFB)

A broad trough of low pressure sits between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This trough will drift to the NE over the open Atlantic and could slowly gain subtropical characteristics. For now the National Hurricane Center is giving this system a very low end chance for subtropical development.

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