Good rain chances today; watching the tropics yet again

Good rain chances today; watching the tropics yet again

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Today likely provides the best rain chances we’ve seen since Hurricane Delta made landfall in SW Louisiana two weeks ago. Keep an umbrella handy and know that some of the rain may linger into this evening. Looking ahead, not only will we be awaiting some cooler weather next week, but we’ll also be watching the tropics yet again.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Friday, Oct. 23.
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Friday, Oct. 23. (Source: WAFB)

Today’s Details

Other than a few showers along the coast, most of us should stay dry through lunchtime. But scattered showers and t-storms will develop this afternoon and become more widespread during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Highs will top out in the mid-80s before the rains develop. Unfortunately, rain could be in the mix for some of tonight’s high school football games as an approaching cold front likely keeps some of the rain going beyond sunset.

Futurecast (GRAF model) valid at 4:30 p.m. Friday showing scattered to numerous showers and t-storms around the area. Some rain likely lingers beyond sunset and could impact high school football games.
Futurecast (GRAF model) valid at 4:30 p.m. Friday showing scattered to numerous showers and t-storms around the area. Some rain likely lingers beyond sunset and could impact high school football games. (Source: WAFB)

Weekend Outlook

That weak cold front will slide through the area overnight and should provide a noticeable change in our weather on Saturday. Highs will top out in the low 80s instead of the mid to upper 80s we’ve seen through the week and humidity should be at least slightly lower. Other than a small rain chance during the early morning hours, most should stay dry.

While Sunday will still see temperatures running a bit above normal for late October, it should be a nice day for anything you have planned outdoors. Look for partly cloudy skies, with a morning start in the low 60s and highs in the mid-80s.

WAFB Storm Team forecast for this weekend, Oct. 24-25. While temperatures will remain a bit above normal, weather will cooperate for any outdoor plans.
WAFB Storm Team forecast for this weekend, Oct. 24-25. While temperatures will remain a bit above normal, weather will cooperate for any outdoor plans. (Source: WAFB)

Next Week: Complicated Forecast

Above normal temperatures will continue into the first part of next week as we await a pair of cold fronts. Highs will reach the mid-80s on both Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances on the low side in the 20%-30% range.

A weak cold front may slide through the area by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, providing a modest cool down for the mid part of the week. But it looks like the stronger front will likely move through sometime on Thursday. In its wake, we should finally enjoy a return of some nice fall weather. The extended outlook continues to point toward really nice weather for Halloween.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Friday morning, Oct. 23.
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Friday morning, Oct. 23. (Source: WAFB)
Early outlook for trick-or-treating on Halloween (Saturday, Oct. 31). The current forecast suggests we’ll enjoy a dry and pleasant Halloween.
Early outlook for trick-or-treating on Halloween (Saturday, Oct. 31). The current forecast suggests we’ll enjoy a dry and pleasant Halloween. (Source: WAFB)

The complicating factor in next week’s forecast, in addition to tracking 1 or 2 cold fronts, is the potential for a tropical system of some sort in the Gulf. An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean has become much better organized since yesterday and the National Hurricane Center has quickly raised development chances to 60% as of the 7 a.m. Friday tropical weather outlook.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Friday, Oct. 23. An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean is now given a 60% chance of development and could move into the southern Gulf by early next week.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Friday, Oct. 23. An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean is now given a 60% chance of development and could move into the southern Gulf by early next week. (Source: WAFB)

Uncertainty is high on its future track at this point, but some guidance does show a slow northwest motion into the Gulf by early next week. From there, potential interactions with one or both cold fronts may have a lot to say about its eventual track. It appears possible that the system may encounter increasing wind shear the farther north it gets, but we’ve got plenty of time to monitor trends. If nothing else, it’s possible that some of that tropical moisture gets drawn northward along the fronts and enhances rainfall along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

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