FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Rain chances returning; warm temperatures persist

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Wednesday, Oct. 21 - 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Rain chances return to the forecast over the next couple of days, but our unusual October warmth isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Above normal temperatures will remain in place through the weekend.

Thursday Forecast

A patch or two of fog will be possible to start out Thursday, but much likely Wednesday morning, it shouldn’t be an issue for most. Otherwise, warm weather continues as morning lows only reach the upper 60s and afternoon highs top out in the mid 80s. The main change will be a return of rain chances, with a 30% chance of showers and t-storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Thursday, Oct. 22
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Thursday, Oct. 22 (Source: WAFB)

Weekend Outlook

Best rain chances are pegged for Friday as a weak upper-air disturbance moves overhead and pulls some tropical moisture northward. The Friday forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers and t-storms, with highs still reaching the mid 80s before any rain develops.

It’s possible a few isolated showers may linger into Saturday, but the majority of us get through Saturday and Sunday without any rainfall. No significant change is expected in temperatures, with morning starts in the upper 60s and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday afternoon, Oct. 21
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday afternoon, Oct. 21 (Source: WAFB)

If you’re headed to Tiger Stadium to catch the South Carolina vs. LSU game Saturday night, dress comfortably, with kickoff temps expected to be near 80° and only fall into the low 70s by the end of the game. While an isolated shower can’t be ruled out during the afternoon, the game likely stays rain-free.

Forecast for the South Carolina vs. LSU game slated to kickoff at 6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 24 in Tiger Stadium. Mild and dry weather is expected for the game.
Forecast for the South Carolina vs. LSU game slated to kickoff at 6 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 24 in Tiger Stadium. Mild and dry weather is expected for the game. (Source: WAFB)

Cold Front Next Week?

Our model guidance continues to show significant discrepancies on the possible arrival of a cold front next week. The GFS is much quicker with the arrival of cooler air, showing a significant cold front moving through the area by Tuesday afternoon. The European model, by contrast, still has the front well to our northwest Tuesday and doesn’t really produce much of a cool down until the end of next week. For now, we’ll take a bit of a compromise approach with the forecast temperatures, showing a modest cool down by the mid part of the week, with perhaps a more significant cool down possible by Halloween weekend.

Comparison of forecast temperatures from the GFS and European models for 1 p.m. Tuesday, Oct 27. The GFS pushes a strong cold front through our area by early next week, while the European model doesn't show much of a cool down until late in the week.
Comparison of forecast temperatures from the GFS and European models for 1 p.m. Tuesday, Oct 27. The GFS pushes a strong cold front through our area by early next week, while the European model doesn't show much of a cool down until late in the week. (Source: WAFB)

Tracking Epsilon

Epsilon has rapidly intensified since Tuesday and is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum winds of 110 mph as of 1 p.m. Wednesday. Epsilon’s rapid intensification appears to be unprecedented for its location this late in the hurricane season. It could become a major hurricane Wednesday night before conditions become less favorable Thursday and some slow weakening begins. Epsilon will avoid land for the next five days, but could eventually become part of a powerful non-tropical low over the northern Atlantic by this weekend or early next week.

Advisory and forecast track for Hurricane Epsilon as of 1 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 21. Epsilon could become a major hurricane later Wednesday evening or night.
Advisory and forecast track for Hurricane Epsilon as of 1 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 21. Epsilon could become a major hurricane later Wednesday evening or night. (Source: WAFB)

Click here to report a typo.

Copyright 2020 WAFB. All rights reserved.