FIRST ALERT FORECAST: What happened to fall?

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Oct. 19 - 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Warm and humid weather will continue to prevail locally through the week with no signs of a significant cold front through at least the weekend. Morning lows will be nearly 10° above average into the weekend, with afternoon highs running approximately 5°-8° above normal.

Another foggy start on Tuesday?

Fog will be our primary short term weather issue with another round likely to start the day on Tuesday, Oct. 20. The National Weather Service doesn’t have a Dense Fog Advisory posted yet as of mid-afternoon Monday, Oct. 19 but I think there’s a good chance we’ll see one issued by this evening. Widespread visibilities below 1 mile can be expected to start the day on Wednesday, Oct. 21.

Fogcast valid at 7 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020 showing widespread significant reductions in visibility around the area as another round of fog likely develops.
Fogcast valid at 7 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020 showing widespread significant reductions in visibility around the area as another round of fog likely develops. (Source: WAFB)

Fall, where did you go?

Outside of our fog issues, the other big story is above normal temperatures and that won’t change anytime soon. Morning lows will bottom out in the mid-upper 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s on both days. While a stray shower can’t be completely ruled out, the vast majority of us stay dry the next couple of days.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020.
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020. (Source: WAFB)

Rain later this week

We will see scattered showers and a few t-storms return to the forecast for the latter part of the week. A trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean is expected to slowly drift north and northwest through the week. That feature is unlikely to develop into anything tropical, but it will send a surge of moisture toward the northern Gulf Coast that should result in decent rain chances by the end of the week.

Rain chances for the Baton Rouge area through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and t-storms are expected Thursday and Friday in association with a trough of low pressure moving northward in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain chances for the Baton Rouge area through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and t-storms are expected Thursday and Friday in association with a trough of low pressure moving northward in the Gulf of Mexico. (Source: WAFB)

Finally cooler next week?

Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the weekend, although both Saturday, Oct. 24 and Sunday, Oct. 25 likely stay mainly dry around the area. We then anxiously await our next cold front slated to arrive sometime during the first half of next week. There are some model differences on timing, but it looks as though a healthy cold front should move through the area by Tuesday, with scattered showers, followed by a significant cool down.

Tropical update

As mentioned previously, a trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean is unlikely to develop and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has those odds at a meager 10% over the next 5 days.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 1 p.m. Monday. A trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean is not expected to develop as it moves into the Gulf this week.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 1 p.m. Monday. A trough of low pressure in the western Caribbean is not expected to develop as it moves into the Gulf this week. (Source: WAFB)

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Epsilon formed over the open Atlantic this morning. Epsilon not only becomes the 26th named system of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, it also breaks the record for earliest 26th named storm from 2005 by more than a month. Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday as it tracks generally northwestward. It could pass rather close to Bermuda by late in the week, but is not expected to threaten the U.S. at this point.

10 a.m. Monday advisory and forecast track for newly-formed Tropical Storm Epsilon. Epsilon is the 26th named storm of the record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
10 a.m. Monday advisory and forecast track for newly-formed Tropical Storm Epsilon. Epsilon is the 26th named storm of the record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. (Source: WAFB)

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