FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Rain chances increase by end of week

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Sunday, Oct. 18 - Rain chances increase by end of week

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The warming trend that began Sunday will subtly continue into the work/school week. Temperatures will be several degrees above average all the way through next weekend.

Morning lows will range between the mid to upper 60s with highs ranging through the 80s. With warm, moist air coming in off the Gulf of Mexico, we could see a few patches of fog during the work/school week. Be sure to watch for kids at area bus stops and use low beam headlights if you encounter fog.

10-day forecast for Baton Rouge
10-day forecast for Baton Rouge (Source: WAFB)

We stay mainly dry through mid week. By the end of the week, rain chances will be on the rise as a weak inverted trough moves through the Gulf of Mexico. This feature is not related to any of our areas of interest in the tropics. Wind shear will be too strong for any possible development.

A 40-50% coverage of showers and t-storms will be possible Thursday into Friday as this wave of tropical moisture moves through. Speaking of the tropics, development chances have come down some for the project low pressure system in the Central Caribbean.

Possible tropical development
Possible tropical development (Source: WAFB)

Weather models Sunday morning and afternoon have become less bullish on potential development. Even if something were to develop, the North Central Gulf Coast region would be protected from a series of cold fronts set to arrive over the next several days. The more likely named storm will be a sub-tropical system in the Central Atlantic. This will be a fish storm though and poses no threat to land.

A weak front moves through Saturday keeping things mainly dry for next weekend. Temperatures will take a small dip, but stay above normal. A stronger cold front is forecast to arrive during the first part of the following work week, but long-range weather models do not agree on timing at this time with the EURO projecting a stronger cold front Oct. 26 while the GFS shows a weaker cold front Tuesday Oct. 27.

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