FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Strong cold front still on schedule to arrive early Friday

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Wed., Oct. 14 - Strong cold front still on schedule to arrive early Friday

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A strong cold front slated to move through the area by early Friday continues to headline our weather Wednesday, Oct. 14. Otherwise, mild and generally dry conditions should continue for another day or two.

Today’s Forecast

Bright sunshine will prevail throughout the day, with afternoon highs again topping out in the mid 80s. While not terrible, those highs are still a few degrees above normal for the mid part of October. Fortunately, the humidity will remain at comfortable levels and no rain is expected.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020.
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. (Source: WAFB)

Thursday-Friday

Humidity will climb a bit on Thursday in advance of Friday’s cold front and a spotty shower won’t be out of the question during the day. Highs will again top out in the mid 80s, but the increased humidity will result in a muggier feel if outdoors.

Our much-anticipated cold front will likely move through during the predawn hours of Friday, with breezy and cooler conditions arriving by the time you wake up. Clouds may linger for a while behind the front, with Friday’s highs struggling to get much above 70° in most neighborhoods. We’ll also see a slight chance of showers along and behind the front, but no significant rainfall is expected.

Futurecast (GRAF model) valid at 12 a.m. (midnight) Friday, Oct. 16, 2020. showing an approaching cold front, along with a few showers. The front will deliver much cooler weather for Friday and Saturday, Oct 17, 2020.
Futurecast (GRAF model) valid at 12 a.m. (midnight) Friday, Oct. 16, 2020. showing an approaching cold front, along with a few showers. The front will deliver much cooler weather for Friday and Saturday, Oct 17, 2020. (Source: WAFB)

Weekend Outlook

Models have trended slightly ‘less cool’ behind the front for the weekend, but it will still produce a noticeable change. Morning lows on Saturday will range from the upper 40s to low 50s, with highs topping out in the mid 70s under bright sunshine. A few clouds return by Sunday, with a morning start in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the low 80s.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday morning, Oct. 14, 2020.
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday morning, Oct. 14, 2020. (Source: WAFB)

Tropical Update

As expected, development chances have continued to diminish with a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Strong wind shear is battering the system and the National Hurricane Center lists development odds at only 10%.

While the tropics will likely remain pretty quiet through at least the weekend, model guidance continues to peg the SW Caribbean as an area to watch by next week. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is echoing that thought, with an outlook released on Tuesday highlighting a moderate chance of tropical development in this area by next week and a high probability by the week of Oct. 21-27. Obviously, we’ve got plenty of time to monitor trends and have nothing to worry about at this point. It just serves as a reminder that hurricane season is not over yet.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is unlikely to develop.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. A tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is unlikely to develop. (Source: WAFB)

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