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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tropical Storm Delta forms in Caribbean

Updated: Oct. 5, 2020 at 7:17 AM CDT
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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - After gorgeous autumn weather this past weekend, it looks as if we’re in line for at least a few more quiet and mild days prior to tropical weather later this week.

In the meantime, it’s a clear and mild Monday with temperatures in the upper 50°s to lower 60°s on the way to a high of 83°

Overnight, a fair and pleasant low of 58°.

Tomorrow, another mild October day with perhaps a few more clouds but dry with a high of 84°.

Tropical Storm Delta formed Monday morning in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center reported.

Tropical Depression #26 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta.
Tropical Depression #26 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta.(WAFB)

Its forecast track means the storm will pose a hurricane threat for the northern Gulf coast. The current cone of uncertainty stretches from the Louisiana-Texas border to the Florida Panhandle.

Currently, the center of Delta is located about 270 miles SE of Grand Cayman, 130 miles S of Negril, Jamaica, with highest sustained winds of 40 mph, moving to the WNW at 9 mph. This general motion should continue for the next day, or so.

A faster NW motion is expected late Tuesday and early Wednesday as it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane.

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, a Category 2 hurricane is expected (winds of 105 mph) off the coast of south Louisiana (winds of 100 mph) overnight Thursday into early Friday. There is still much uncertainty regarding the track of this latest system.

The following information was provided by the National Weather Service:

Delta strengthening over the northwestern Caribbean Sea... ...expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday, Oct. 6.

LOCATION: 16.4N 78.6W about 135 miles south of Negril, Jamaica; about 265 miles southeast of Grand Cayman.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 mph

PRESENT MOVEMENT: North at 7 mph

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 mb

WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana

10 a.m. advisory Oct. 5, 2020 for Tropical Storm Delta
10 a.m. advisory Oct. 5, 2020 for Tropical Storm Delta(National Hurricane Center)

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK: At 10 a.m. CDT , the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

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