FIRST ALERT FORECAST: All eyes on potential Tropical Cyclone #26

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Sunday, Oct.4- All eyes on potential Tropical Cyclone #26

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on what will become Tropical Storm, and according to the official NHC forecast, Hurricane Delta. Right now, the designation is Potential Tropical Cyclone #26.

This means the NHC feels tropical storm formation is imminent and allows them to issue Tropical Advisories in the storms projected path. This system was formerly Invest 92-L.

GFS Model & Wind Shear
GFS Model & Wind Shear (Source: WAFB)

PTC #26 is forecast to steadily strengthen as it moves from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center forecast cone does not look particularly good for South Louisiana showing a Category 2 Hurricane approaching or making landfall Friday afternoon/evening. But the margin of error is 160-200 miles 5 days out, so it is still up in the air exactly where PTC #26 ultimately makes landfall.

Even with PTC #26 seemingly closing in on the North Central Gulf Coast Region, the weather will remain quite pleasant through the first half of the upcoming work/school week. Temperatures will stay cooler than normal in the early morning with afternoon highs right at normal through Tuesday.

Cone and threat area
Cone and threat area (Source: WAFB)

By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will be above normal as we start to see some influences from the disturbances in the Gulf. Rain activity will be highly dependent on the track PTC #26 takes. Rainfall estimates across the local area range from 2-4″ to less than 1″ depending on the long range model you look at.

With so much uncertainty still with PTC #26, it remains hard to pinpoint potential impacts. For now, coastal areas should prepare for storm surge impacts and potential hurricane force wind damage. Farther inland the wind impacts will likely be tropical storm force and possible flash flooding due to tropical rains. Impacts will begin to be felt Friday 10/9 into Saturday 10/10.

Once PTC #26 passes the area, we will await yet another cold front. This cold front is set to arrive towards the end of our 10 day forecast.

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