FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Beautiful fall weather inbound

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Beautiful fall weather inbound
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Monday morning, Sept. 28. (Source: WAFB)

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - We often say that October delivers some of our nicest weather of the year here in south Louisiana, but Mother Nature is delivering a little ahead of schedule in 2020. A cold front moving through the area this afternoon will set the stage for an extended run of beautiful weather to close out September and welcome the month of October.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Monday, Sept. 28.
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Monday, Sept. 28. (Source: WAFB)

Today’s Forecast

We’ll see one more afternoon in the 80s before a cold front slides through during the early-mid afternoon hours. Rain chances will peak around metro Baton Rouge in the 1 p.m. – 4 p.m. window with the passage of the front. Rain chances run 70%-80% today, but rain amounts will likely come in well under an inch for most. And while highs will reach the mid 80s near/shortly after lunch, we’ll see temperatures taking a tumble through the 70s this afternoon into the upper 60s by early evening!

Futurecast (RPM model) valid at 2:30 p.m. Monday afternoon showing showers and t-storms moving through the area in association with a strong early fall cold front.
Futurecast (RPM model) valid at 2:30 p.m. Monday afternoon showing showers and t-storms moving through the area in association with a strong early fall cold front. (Source: WAFB)
Forecast temperatures for this afternoon showing a steady drop from mid-late afternoon into the evening in the wake of a cold front.
Forecast temperatures for this afternoon showing a steady drop from mid-late afternoon into the evening in the wake of a cold front. (Source: WAFB)

Rest of This Week

I would have a tough time drawing up a nicer forecast for the time of year than what is headed our way in the coming days. We may wake up to a few clouds on Tuesday morning, but sunshine quickly returns during the day on Tuesday and stays with us through the remainder of the week. And temperatures will be considerably cooler, with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s right on through the weekend, with the exception of Thursday. A second cold front will be heading our way on Thursday, with temperatures briefly rebounding into the low 80s until it moves through.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Monday morning, Sept. 28.
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Monday morning, Sept. 28. (Source: WAFB)

Tropics Coming Back to Life This Week?

All is quiet in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico on this final Monday of September, but it may not stay that way through the remainder of the week. A tropical wave currently moving through the eastern Caribbean is expected to slow down as it moves into the western Caribbean later this week. Once there, conditions may become more favorable for some sort of development. The National Hurricane Center currently places development odds at 30% over the next 5 days, while the Euro model ensembles show greater than a 50% chance of a tropical depression forming from this weekend into early next week.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 28. NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean for possible development later this week.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 28. NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean for possible development later this week. (Source: WAFB)
Chances of a tropical depression forming between 7 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 3 – 7 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 6 via the European model ensembles. (Credit: WeatherBELL)
Chances of a tropical depression forming between 7 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 3 – 7 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 6 via the European model ensembles. (Credit: WeatherBELL) (Source: WAFB)

Obviously, we’ve got plenty of time to monitor trends and this is of low concern as it stands right now. But it should be noted that as we head into October, it is this very area, the NW Caribbean, that often becomes a hot spot for tropical development.

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