FIRST ALERT FORECAST: One more hot, dry day before changes arrive

FIRST ALERT 12 P.M. FORECAST: Thursday, Sept. 10

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Summer maintains a firm grip on our weather, but increasing rain chances in the coming days should begin to deliver at least a little bit of relief.

Today’s Forecast

Hot and dry weather prevails today, with highs soaring into the mid 90s and rain chances next to nil. Humidity values are expected to be modest this afternoon, so heat index values should peak near or slightly above 100°.

Friday – Sunday

A trough of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward, providing an increase in moisture and rain chances beginning on Friday. Rain chances climb to 40% tomorrow and reach 60%-70% over the weekend. Friday’s rains will take a little while to get going, so highs could still reach the mid 90s in a few neighborhoods. But highs on Saturday and Sunday should top out in the low 90s thanks to more cloud cover and rainfall.

Future Radar (HRRR model) valid at 3 p.m. Friday showing scattered showers and t-storms around the area.
Future Radar (HRRR model) valid at 3 p.m. Friday showing scattered showers and t-storms around the area. (Source: WAFB)

Next Week

A second trough of low pressure/area of disturbed weather located east of the Bahamas will move into the Gulf and provide an additional boost to our rain chances through at least the mid part of next week. Daily rain chances will run 70% or better from Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90°. While rain is expected to be the primary impact from this system, the National Hurricane Center currently gives it a 30% chance of development, so we’ll need to watch it closely since it will likely track across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite and radar loop from Thursday morning highlighting two areas of disturbed weather that will track across the Gulf and provide increased rain chances locally into next week.
Satellite and radar loop from Thursday morning highlighting two areas of disturbed weather that will track across the Gulf and provide increased rain chances locally into next week. (Source: WAFB)

Rain Amounts

The current outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center currently indicates rain totals will average 1″ to 3″ locally over the next 7 days. However, given the big influx of tropical moisture from those 2 separate systems, don’t be surprised if those amounts trend higher and we’ll need to monitor the threat for at least some locally heavy rainfall.

Future Radar (HRRR model) valid at 3 p.m. Friday showing scattered showers and t-storms around the area.
Future Radar (HRRR model) valid at 3 p.m. Friday showing scattered showers and t-storms around the area. (Source: WAFB)

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