FIRST ALERT FORECAST: No real cold front in sight; tropics remain busy

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Sept. 7 - 12 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The story in our local weather is the “now you see it, now you don’t” trend with regards to a possible cold front moving through later this week. Guidance now indicates that we are unlikely to see a significant cold front passage, meaning we’ll be stuck in our typical late-summer heat throughout the upcoming week.

Labor Day Forecast

Weather stays quiet today for any outdoor plans you may have to celebrate the Labor Day holiday. It will be hot, with highs reaching the mid 90s, but humidity stays a touch below-normal for one more day, helping to at least keep heat index values below 100° for most of us.

Labor Day Forecast
Labor Day Forecast (Source: WAFB)

Rest of This Week

After a couple of days of drier, less humid weather, Gulf moisture will make a slow but steady return to the area through the remainder of the week. With that, look for the return of a few afternoon showers and t-storms. Rain chances will run 20%-30% from Tuesday through Thursday, with those chances climbing higher as we get into the weekend.

A cold front that was once advertised to move through by late in the week now looks like it will fizzle out before reaching our area. Morning lows will bottom out in the low-mid 70s for the rest of the week, with highs in the low-mid 90s.

A somewhat unsettled pattern that is expected to develop by this weekend may continue into the first part of next week.

FIRST ALERT 10 DAY FORECAST Monday, Sept. 7, 2020, through Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2020.
FIRST ALERT 10 DAY FORECAST Monday, Sept. 7, 2020, through Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2020. (Source: WAFB)

Tropical Update

Two systems have seen upgrades over the open Atlantic within the last 24 hours. Tropical Depression #17 formed Sunday night about halfway between Africa and the Windward Islands and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Paulette as of 10 a.m. Monday. Paulette becomes the earliest ’P' named storm on record, surpassing Philippe from Sept. 17, 2005. The good news is that chances appear fairly high that Paulette will recurve over the open Atlantic later this week.

Monday advisory and forecast track for newly-formed Tropical Storm Paulette. Paulette becomes the earliest ‘P’ named storm on record, surpassing Philippe from Sept. 17, 2005.
Monday advisory and forecast track for newly-formed Tropical Storm Paulette. Paulette becomes the earliest ‘P’ named storm on record, surpassing Philippe from Sept. 17, 2005. (Source: WAFB)

We are also tracking Tropical Depression #18 near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Rene in the next day or so, but also appears to have a good chance of recurving over the open Atlantic.

Monday advisory and forecast track for Tropical Depression #18. The system is likely to become Tropical Storm Rene in the next day or so.
Monday advisory and forecast track for Tropical Depression #18. The system is likely to become Tropical Storm Rene in the next day or so. (Source: WAFB)
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7. Two additional systems are being monitored for potential development, but neither poses an immediate threat to the Gulf Coast.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 7. Two additional systems are being monitored for potential development, but neither poses an immediate threat to the Gulf Coast. (Source: WAFB)

We are tracking two other systems with some development potential – a tropical wave expected to emerge from Africa and an area of disturbed weather just southwest of Bermuda. The wave emerging from Africa is given a 40% chance of development in the next five days, while the system closer to Bermuda is given a 30% chance of development. Neither is of immediate concern to our area.

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