FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Hot, mainly dry for now; fingers crossed for cold front next week

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Wed., Sept. 2 - Summer isn't quite done yet

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Quiet weather prevails locally for the next several days as high pressure parks itself overhead. Rain will be hard to come by and summer will remind us that it’s not quite done with south Louisiana.

Today – Friday

The vast majority of us likely get through the next 3 days without any rainfall. Highs will top out in the mid 90s each afternoon, with heat index values generally peaking between 100°-105°. You may notice some haze in the skies over the next couple of days due not only to that area of high pressure overhead, but also a little bit of Saharan dust that has worked its way back into the area.

WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Wednesday, Sept. 2.
WAFB Storm Team Pinpoint Forecast for Wednesday, Sept. 2. (Source: WAFB)

Labor Day Weekend

A weak cold front will sink into the region from the north and should be enough to produce at least a slight uptick in rain chances by the weekend. However, ‘slight’ is the key word here, with rain chances only expected to run 20%-30% from Saturday through Labor Day Monday. And temperatures look to stay largely unchanged, with lows in the mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday morning, Sept. 2.
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Wednesday morning, Sept. 2. (Source: WAFB)

True Cold Front Next Week?

Next week’s forecast will be highly dependent on the potential impacts of a cold front. Regardless of the exact details, rain chances should climb higher by Tuesday and Wednesday. The big question mark centers around whether we get a significant cool down or not with that front. The GFS is quite aggressive, showing highs only reaching the upper 70s by the end of the week and lows dipping well into the 60s. By contrast, the Euro model has really backed off on any significant frontal passage, showing lows in the 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. While afternoon temps in the 80s would still be an improvement, some of that appears to be tied to the model forecasting a good deal of cloud cover and rainfall.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Wednesday. Two systems farther out in the Atlantic are being tracked for potential development.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 7 a.m. Wednesday. Two systems farther out in the Atlantic are being tracked for potential development. (Source: WAFB)

For now, uncertainty remains high on the forecast for next week and we will just have to keep our fingers crossed that the GFS ends up winning this model showdown.

Tropical Update

We continue to track 4 separate systems in the tropics today, with the good news being that none of these poses any immediate threat to our part of the world or the U.S. coastline. Tropical Storm Nana is still forecast to become a minimal hurricane later today or tonight before potentially reaching the coast of Belize by early tomorrow.

10 a.m. Wednesday advisory and forecast for Tropical Storm Nana. Nana is forecast to reach the coast of Belize by early Thursday, potentially as a minimal hurricane.
10 a.m. Wednesday advisory and forecast for Tropical Storm Nana. Nana is forecast to reach the coast of Belize by early Thursday, potentially as a minimal hurricane. (Source: WAFB)

Omar has been struggling to hang on as a tropical storm and will likely begin to weaken by tomorrow as it encounters increasing levels of wind shear. Oman will remain over the open Atlantic and poses no direct threat to land.

10 a.m. Wednesday advisory and forecast track for Tropical Storm Omar. Omar is forecast to weaken by tomorrow and poses no direct threat to land areas.
10 a.m. Wednesday advisory and forecast track for Tropical Storm Omar. Omar is forecast to weaken by tomorrow and poses no direct threat to land areas. (Source: WAFB)

Finally, the National Hurricane Center continues to track 2 features in the deep tropics. A tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands of the Caribbean is given a 30% chance of development, while a strong tropical wave emerging from Africa is given a 60% chance of development. We’ve got plenty of time to monitor both of these systems.

Comparison of forecast temperatures from the GFS ensembles (GEFS) and the European model ensembles (EPS) for Thursday and Friday of next week, Sept. 10-11. The GEFS shows a significant cold front moving through, while the EPS shows little impact in temperatures from any potential cold front.
Comparison of forecast temperatures from the GFS ensembles (GEFS) and the European model ensembles (EPS) for Thursday and Friday of next week, Sept. 10-11. The GEFS shows a significant cold front moving through, while the EPS shows little impact in temperatures from any potential cold front. (Source: WAFB)

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