FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Rain chances increase for remainder of week, weekend

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tuesday, Aug. 11 - 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Tuesday’s weather certainly did not disappoint, that is if you were counting on August heat and humidity. With only limited afternoon t-showers, very few neighborhoods benefited from one of the summer season rain-generated afternoon cool-offs. Tuesday afternoon temperatures hit the low to mid 90s, with heat index readings running in the 100s for up to six hours in some WAFB neighborhoods. What clouds and showers that did develop through Tuesday afternoon and early evening will dissipate shortly after sunset, giving way to mainly clear skies for the overnight hours.

That’s good news for sky watchers as the Perseid meteor shower peaks Tuesday night. It looks like the best window for viewing the astronomical show will be from roughly 10 p.m. until around 1 a.m. While the show will continue until dawn, the moon will rise a little after 1 a.m. The moonlight will interfere a bit with the best viewing, but it certainly won’t bring an end to the overnight celestial display.

Perseid meteor shower
Perseid meteor shower (Source: WAFB)

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and remain in the 50% to 60% range from Thursday until next Monday. The First Alert Forecast Wednesday calls for a 50% coverage of rain from the afternoon into the early evening. The Storm Team acknowledges only modest confidence in that rainfall percentage as the forecast tools are showing Wednesday rain probabilities ranging from less than 30% to over 70%.

Wednesday pinpoint forecast
Wednesday pinpoint forecast (Source: WAFB)

Expect a dry, but muggy start to Wednesday under mainly clear skies, with daybreak temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday’s highs will return to the low to mid 90s once again, with heat index readings in the triple digits, at least until the rains arrive.

FutureCast
FutureCast (Source: WAFB)

While the Storm Team is expecting scattered to likely rains each day through the weekend, the majority of the viewing area can expect less than 1″ of rain between Wednesday morning and Sunday evening. However, as is common in the summer months, a slow moving thunderstorm can easily produce localized totals of 2″ to 3″ or more.

Rainfall estimates through the weekend
Rainfall estimates through the weekend (Source: WAFB)

Heading into next week, the daily rain percentages are expected to come down a bit. In addition, long-range models are hinting that a cool front may try to make its way into the region around mid-week. Let’s not count on that happening, but it’s certainly something to hope for, and the Storm Team will track that potential development through the coming days.

10-day forecast
10-day forecast (Source: WAFB)

In the tropics, Invest 95L has earned the upgrade and is now Tropical Depression #11 (as of 4 .m. Tuesday). Conditions appear favorable for additional development in the short-term and the depression could soon become Tropical Storm Josephine. However, the tropical cyclone may run into dry air (SAL, Saharan Air Layer) and wind shear as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system is too far away for Gulf interests to be concerned. What’s more, much of the long-range guidance suggests the cyclone will stay in the Atlantic and could curve northward long before reaching the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

Tropical Depression #11
Tropical Depression #11 (Source: WAFB)

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