FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Scattered storms throughout the weekend

FIRST ALERT 10 P.M. FORECAST: Friday, July 31

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Friday’s weather story was mainly about temperatures in the 90s and the heat index running at 100° or more for several hours during the afternoon. There were a couple of blips within the area on the afternoon radar, but very few WAFB neighborhoods got a rain-break from the afternoon heat.

The Storm Team is calling for a mostly-dry Friday evening and night. However, we are watching a line of shows and storms to the northwest and some of that energy could hold together and reach northwestern sections of the viewing area.

Pinpoint Forecast: Saturday, August 1, 2020
Pinpoint Forecast: Saturday, August 1, 2020 (Source: WAFB)
Pinpoint Forecast: Sunday, August 2, 2020
Pinpoint Forecast: Sunday, August 2, 2020 (Source: WAFB)

A cool front will sag southward into northern to central Louisiana overnight and become stationary north of the WAFB region through Saturday and into Sunday. That front and the humid air in place will provide the opportunity for Saturday’s isolated morning showers and scattered afternoon thundershowers.

The Storm Team has rain chances set at 50% for the day with a morning start in the mid 70s and an afternoon high around 90° for the Red Stick. Saturday rains will break the afternoon heat for some communities, but many of us will see a return of heat index readings in the triple digits in the early afternoon.

Scattered afternoon rains will taper off into the evening with a mainly-dry night to follow. The front will fizzle and fade north of the viewing area on Sunday afternoon, so be ready for isolated to scattered Sunday afternoon thundershowers.

After a morning start again in the mid 70s, highs on Sunday should reach 90° to the low 90s for most of the viewing area.

The outlook for next week keeps rain chances in the 20% to 40% range for the workweek. The issue in the extended outlook deals with a second, follow-up cool that arrives during the week.

Some of the evidence suggests that this second front could sag southward to the coast, while other guidance has it meandering over the state through the week.

Rainfall Estimates for Sunday, August 2, 2020
Rainfall Estimates for Sunday, August 2, 2020 (Source: WAFB)

A southward dip to the coast would not mean a dramatic cooling, but it could offer a brief, limited drop in the regional humidity. Hopefully, the future of that second front will become a bit more clear over the weekend.

In the meantime, the other big weather story is the action in the tropics. Category 1 Isaias will continue to track northwestward this weekend, battering the Bahamas through Saturday and then threatening Florida’s Atlantic coast from Saturday evening through Sunday.

Isaias (Source: WAFB)

The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast for Isaias keeps the system as a category 1 hurricane through the next 3 days as it parallels the southeastern U.S. Seaboard before landfalling in the Carolinas as a tropical storm on Monday or Tuesday.

Lots of uncertainty remains for the Atlantic coastal states, not just from Florida to North Carolina, but potentially all the way into New England.

The NHC is also flagging a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic, giving it a 30% chance for development over the next 3 to 5 days.

And in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, near the Cabo Verde Islands, Invest 93L earned the NHC ‘upgrade’ to Tropical Depression #10 this afternoon.

While the system is expected to lose its tropical structure in the next couple of days, the NHC forecast has it attaining tropical storm intensity briefly within the next six to 24 hours.

If that pans out, it would become Tropical Storm Josephine, the ‘earliest’ 10th named system ever in the Atlantic Basin. To put that in perspective, the current ‘earliest’ 10th named storm in 2005′s Tropical Storm Jose, which didn’t form until August 22, 2005.

10 Day Forecast
10 Day Forecast (Source: WAFB)

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