FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Finally drying out locally; Isaias could threaten parts of U.S.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thursday, July 30

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - High pressure building in from the east will finally give many of us a chance to dry out over the next couple of days. Rain chances will run 20% to 30% this afternoon and less than 20% on Friday.

Of course, there’s always a balancing act with heat and rain in the summer, with less rain meaning a return of our typical summer heat.

By the weekend, a weak cool front will approach and stall a little to our north. However, it gets close enough to bring a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

WAFB Pinpoint Forecast for Thursday showing highs reaching the low 90°s today and rain chances of 20%-30%.
WAFB Pinpoint Forecast for Thursday showing highs reaching the low 90°s today and rain chances of 20%-30%. (Source: WAFB)

This does not look like a repeat of the extended rains we just went through earlier in the week, with rain chances running 40%-50% on Saturday and around 40% on Sunday.

Into next week, Isaias’ potential track near the U.S. East Coast may actually have an upside locally. Somewhat drier air will likely filter down to the Gulf Coast compliments of the northerly flow on the backside of the storm. With that, daily rain chances are currently only posted around 30% through much of next week.

10 a.m. update on Tropical Storm Isaias
10 a.m. update on Tropical Storm Isaias (Source: WAFB)

Speaking of Isaias, it continues to be a tricky system to forecast as of Thursday morning. Satellite and radar imagery indicate that a new center may be re-forming a bit farther north, closer to a new explosion of thunderstorms.

Enhanced infrared satellite loop of Tropical Storm Isaias as of Thursday morning. Satellite imagery shows a possible re-formation of the center farther north which may allow the storm to avoid the highest terrain of Hispaniola.
Enhanced infrared satellite loop of Tropical Storm Isaias as of Thursday morning. Satellite imagery shows a possible re-formation of the center farther north which may allow the storm to avoid the highest terrain of Hispaniola. (Source: WAFB)

This center reformation may give it a chance to avoid some of the highest terrain of Hispaniola and remain in decent shape as it approaches the Turks & Caicos and the islands of the Bahamas.

The official forecast shows a track that brings Isaias near south Florida by Sunday and then potentially tracks northward along the U.S. East Coast. Of course, the exact track and amount of land interaction will have big implications for its strength.

For now, the National Hurricane Center has Isaias becoming a strong tropical storm on approach to Florida, but acknowledges a hurricane is possible and forecast confidence is still on the low side. Regardless, it does not appear to be any threat to our part of the Gulf Coast.

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