FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Advisories issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9; Flash Flood Watch remains in effect

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Tues., July 28 - Advisories issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9; Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
By Steve Caparotta | July 28, 2020 at 9:39 AM CDT - Updated July 28 at 12:32 PM

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The rainy pattern just won’t let up locally, with another day of off and on showers and t-storms expected. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 p.m. Tuesday, with additional rounds of locally heavy rainfall possible.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the majority of the WAFB viewing area through 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the majority of the WAFB viewing area through 7 p.m. on Tuesday. (Source: WAFB)

While most of us have seen the rains spread over a long enough duration to avoid any significant flooding, rain totals for the last couple of months are quite impressive. Baton Rouge Metro Airport is now nearing 9 inches of rain for the month of July and has picked up over 17 inches of rain since the start of June! That’s about 150% of the normal rainfall here in the Capital City for the 2-month stretch.

First Alert Forecast
First Alert Forecast (Source: WAFB)

If you’re looking for a silver lining to this gloomy pattern, it’s that temperatures are running well below normal. We tied a record cool high temperature on Sunday, set a new record cool high on Monday, and will be flirting with another record today as temperatures likely top out in the low 80°s.

First Alert Forecast
First Alert Forecast (Source: WAFB)

It’s one more day of widespread shower and t-storm activity on Wednesday before high pressure builds in from the east and finally gives us some drier weather to close out the week. Rain chances will run 20% or less on Thursday and Friday.

WAFB First Alert Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Tuesday morning. Drier weather is finally expected to arrive by late in the week.
WAFB First Alert Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Tuesday morning. Drier weather is finally expected to arrive by late in the week. (Source: WAFB)

In the tropics, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 as of 10 a.m. Tuesday. The system is located more than 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands (Caribbean) and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias by Wednesday. As a reminder, the potential tropical cyclone designation allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue watches and warnings when a system is expected to become a tropical storm, but isn’t quite there yet in terms of organization.

The first advisory was issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 at 10 a.m. CDT Tuesday by the National Hurricane Center. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias and track generally toward the west-northwest.
The first advisory was issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 at 10 a.m. CDT Tuesday by the National Hurricane Center. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias and track generally toward the west-northwest. (Source: WAFB)

NHC notes that while the system has seen an increase in thunderstorm activity, it still looks as though the center is elongated and not terribly well organized. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate it later today.

NHC also notes the following:

"It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts."

Potential land interactions, some wind shear in the Caribbean, and the uncertainty on when the system will consolidate all lead to a low confidence forecast. In general terms, a stronger system is more likely to track more northward, while a weaker system is more likely to keep tracking more westward. It is too soon to say whether it will ever move into the Gulf of Mexico.Click here to report a typo.

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