FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Rainy through midweek, keeping an eye on the Atlantic

FIRST ALERT 5 P.M. FORECAST: Monday, July 27

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Gloomy weather remains in place compliments of an upper-air disturbance parked over Louisiana today. Monday got off to a rainy start as expected, but rain amounts were a bit higher than anticipated in spots, with some areas picking up 2″ to 3″ of rain or more through mid-morning.

Estimated rainfall for the 12-hour period ending at 10:15 a.m. Monday. Some areas received 2” to 3”+ of rainfall during the early morning hours.
Estimated rainfall for the 12-hour period ending at 10:15 a.m. Monday. Some areas received 2” to 3”+ of rainfall during the early morning hours. (Source: WAFB)

The afternoon hours shouldn’t be quite as active, with the morning rains having used up a good bit of the available energy in the atmosphere. But scattered showers and a few t-storms will remain possible, with highs only reaching the low 80°s. It could be the second straight day of tying or beating a record cool high temperature in Baton Rouge.

Record cool high temperatures for Baton Rouge on Sunday and Monday. Sunday’s high of 83° tied the record cool high set all the way back in 1900. Another record cool high may be set on Monday.
Record cool high temperatures for Baton Rouge on Sunday and Monday. Sunday’s high of 83° tied the record cool high set all the way back in 1900. Another record cool high may be set on Monday. (Source: WAFB)

Little change is expected on Tuesday, with rain chances running 80% for our area. I don’t expect the morning to be quite as wet, but scattered showers and t-storms will develop early and become more numerous by late morning into the afternoon. And it may be one more day with highs only reaching the low 80°s.

Rain chances remain elevated at around 60% on Wednesday, but a later start to the rains should allow highs to reach the upper 80°s.

We’ll finally get a chance to dry out late in the week as high pressure builds in from the east. Thursday’s rain chances are only posted at 30% and they drop to 20% by Friday. Less rain and more sunshine should allow highs to reach 90° or a little above on those days.

Into the weekend, models have been a little inconsistent in the handling of an upper-level trough dropping southward toward the Gulf Coast and the resultant rain chances. For now, we’ve got rain chances posted at 30% on Saturday and 40% on Sunday.

WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Monday morning.
WAFB Storm Team 10-day forecast as of Monday morning. (Source: WAFB)

In the tropics, we continue to track Invest 92L out in the Atlantic. While the National Hurricane Center still has development chances at 90% as of the Monday morning update, recent model runs have trended toward lower chances of development. Dry air lurking just north of the system may be a potential limiting factor. Guidance is in pretty good agreement in tracking the system toward the northern Lesser Antilles by midweek and then potentially toward the Bahamas by late in the week.

Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 7 a.m. Monday. NHC still lists development chances at 90% with Invest 92L, but several computer models have recently trended toward lower chances of development.
Tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 7 a.m. Monday. NHC still lists development chances at 90% with Invest 92L, but several computer models have recently trended toward lower chances of development. (Source: WAFB)

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