JUNE 8, 4 P.M. UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Cristobal is moving across southern Arkansas. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread northward through the Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes during the next couple of days.
LOCATION: 34.0 N, 92.0 W about 110 miles north of Monroe and 135 miles west-southwest of Memphis, Tenn.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 mph
PRESENT MOVEMENT: North at 18 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 mb
WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Flash Flood Watches are in effect in and near the length of the Mississippi Valley.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK: At 4 p.m., the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to accelerate and become more north-northeast as Cristobal moves through the Midwest and western Great Lakes. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some weakening of Cristobal is expected tonight into Tuesday morning before the low restrengthens as it acquires non-tropical character Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Cristobal made landfall in the vicinity of Barataria Bay, east of Grand Isle, at approximately 5:10 p.m. on Sunday. Landfall winds were also estimated at 50 mph.
Regardless of the exact track, it now looks like most, if not all, of the WAFB viewing area will be on the western side of the storm track. That does not eliminate a severe weather threat for the viewing area but it does offer some hope for a reduction in the potential for both flooding and wind-related damage across WAFB parishes and counties.
Nonetheless, all southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi residents need to remain vigilant through the evening and overnight as the tropical storm cuts across the region. In addition to locally-heavy downpours, there remains a low-end threat for the development of tropical tornadoes along with the threat of tropical-storm-force winds and wind gusts tied to rainbands that continue to rotate around the storm core.
Cristobal will weaken through the night and into Monday. However, the large-scale counter-clockwise circulation around the system will continue to pull Gulf moisture inland. That means “rain likely” through the day on Monday, although the severe weather threat will be at a minimum.
The Storm Team is calling for scattered rains on Tuesday with rain likely again on Wednesday when a summer “cool” front slides through the state. The good news with that front is that we can expect less-humid afternoons on Thursday and Friday along with a welcomed dry-out that should extend through the weekend and into next week.
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