FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Most of Baton Rouge area under risk for severe weather Wed. night into early Thurs. morning

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Monday, Feb. 10 - 10 p.m.

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - A few showers will continue into Monday evening, but most of the area will stay dry. Overnight temperatures will run well above normal for early February with daybreak temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Morning commuters will contend with isolated, mostly light showers and some patchy fog.

The Storm Team is calling for scattered passing showers through Tuesday afternoon. There could be an occasional rumble of thunder through the day, but we don’t anticipate active weather. Tuesday’s high will be in the mid to upper 60s for the Baton Rouge metro area, with rain chances running about 50% for the day. Rain totals will be limited, with most neighborhoods getting under 0.1” for the day.

The weather gets much more active during the latter half of Wednesday as a strong cold front tracks from west to east across the Bayou State. The Storm Team is posting a First Alert Action Day given the threat of severe weather during the evening hours. The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) currently has the northern portion of the WAFB region under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather (3/5 on the threat scale) with most of the remainder of the viewing area, including metro Baton Rouge, under a Slight Risk (2/5). At this time, there’s some potential for all modes of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes), along with frequent lightning.

WAFB FutureCast Wednesday
WAFB FutureCast Wednesday (Source: WAFB Weather)

Forecast models are showing some modest differences in the timing of the event for the WAFB area, so be sure to follow the Storm Team over the next 48 hours as we fine tune the arrival times. Rains are likely to linger into Thursday morning before subsiding. While some of our guidance suggests the system may slow as it moves through the WAFB region, excessive rains are not currently considered a major concern.

Severe weather potential
Severe weather potential (Source: WAFB Weather)

After highs in the 70s from Sunday into stormy Wednesday, temperatures will stay in the 50s Thursday behind the cold front. Expect a dry-out with slowly thinning clouds through Thursday afternoon and into the evening.

Sunshine returns Friday, but it stays cool with a morning chill in the 30s for many WAFB neighborhoods and highs again in the upper 50s for the Red Stick.

The first half of Saturday stays dry, but we’re currently anticipating a few scattered rains Saturday afternoon and evening. Set rain chances at 30% or so for the latter half of the day with highs in the low 60s. Unfortunately, rain is back Sunday with the Storm Team posting a 60% chance of showers and a few storms for the day. For now, our wet winter pattern is expected to continue into next week with scattered rains on the forecast board Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (Feb. 17 through 19).

10 day forecast
10 day forecast (Source: WAFB Weather)

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