BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The northern half of the viewing area started Tuesday with a light morning freeze. Some areas along and north of the I/10-12 corridor could be dealing with another brief, light freeze Wednesday morning too.
The issue on just how cold it gets Wednesday morning will depend largely on clouds Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Should clouds start to build in soon after midnight, that could slow the overnight drop in temperatures and potentially keep metro Baton Rouge just above freezing. On the other hand, if the clouds don’t start to roll in until just before sunrise, much of the metro area could dip to or just below freezing.
The bottom line is even for those WAFB neighborhoods that do drop below freezing, the duration will be relatively short. Like Tuesday morning’s chill, Wednesday morning will not be a pipe-busting freeze by any stretch.
Once the clouds do move over the area, they remain for the rest of the day. After the cold morning start, Wednesday temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s for the afternoon under the cloudy skies. Wednesday morning will be dry, but we could see spotty light showers during the afternoon. Be ready for scattered showers by Wednesday evening, with rains increasing from Wednesday night into Thursday.
A storm system will cross the state Thursday, delivering showers and thunderstorms. Fortunately, severe weather appears to be very unlikely, although the Storm Team cannot rule out the potential for one or two strong t-storms during the day. Rain totals are likely to run between 0.5” and 1” for most WAFB neighborhoods, with locally higher totals possible under the stronger t-storms.
Clouds and even a few light showers could linger into Friday’s predawn hours, but skies should be clearing skies by midday and into the afternoon. Friday will be followed by a mostly sunny Saturday with highs both days running around 60° to the lower 60s.
The Storm Team is getting mixed messages about Sunday. A disturbance developing in the western Gulf will track eastward across the northern Gulf. The American GFS model keeps the rains over coastal waters while the European ECMWF model brings rains into the WAFB region. For the time being, the Storm Team will go with a few showers Sunday afternoon and evening as we watch and see if the models come into better agreement later this week.
The following Monday (Jan. 27) looks good, with highs in the upper 60s under sunshine, but both the GFS and ECMWF show the next rainmaker arriving mid-week.