’Get ready’: Breaking down rain and wind forecasts 48 hours before expected landfall

’Get ready’: Breaking down rain and wind forecasts 48 hours before expected landfall
HRRR Forecast wind gusts in miles per hour (Source: WAFB)

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The circumstances around PTC#2/Barry continue to worsen for our region.

The forecast track is expected to change within the next 24 to 48 hours, but there are two consistencies to note:

  • Forecasts indicate a Louisiana landfall, probably as a healthy Category 1 Barry
  • Track has been trending eastward with each update

Main concerns remain rain and the resulting flood potential. Now, we have to start considering the potential for tropical storm force winds in the region as well.

HRRR Forecast wind gusts in miles per hour
HRRR Forecast wind gusts in miles per hour (Source: WAFB)

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rain projections have taken a big step up and moved the focus of the heavier rains over the WAFB area. The WPC is now showing widespread double-digit rain totals for our area, reaching 15 inches or more across much of our region.The latest forecast includes 8 to 10 inch totals extending north of the Louisiana state line into Mississippi.

Rainfall forecasts for Barry, July 11, 7 a.m.
Rainfall forecasts for Barry, July 11, 7 a.m. (Source: WAFB)

Interests in the Amite Basin should get ready.

As if 10 inches of rain or more through the basin isn't bad enough, a loser look at the WPC forecasts show that most of that rain will fall in a window of less than 48 hours. Prepare for high water in the Amite, Comite, and Tickfaw (among others).

The wind threat continues to climb as the area develops into a Category 1 storm. Be mindful of trees and power lines.

Rainband-generated thunderstorms could produce even higher straight-line winds as well as an elevated tornado threat over the next few days.

Lastly, with a slow-moving hurricane heading into the central Louisiana coast, not only is there storm surge concern for the coastal parishes, but we now could be looking at some notable rises and flood threats along the tidal lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas.

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Thurs., July 11 - Flash flood watches extended

Bottom lines:

  • Unsettling uncertainty with what Barry is going to do in the next 48+ hours
  • Planners have about 48 hours or less to get preps in order.

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