FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Slight risk of severe weather Saturday


BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - We started Friday with areas of dense fog and then stayed under the clouds through the better part of the day. As expected, temperatures climbed into the upper 60s to near 70° for much of the area while staying dry throughout the daylight hours. However, scattered showers will start to show up on Doppler radar by the late evening, with rain likely Saturday morning.

Temperatures will stay in the mid 60s through Friday evening, overnight, and into early Saturday as we await the widespread showers and storms linked to the morning cold front passage.

As we proposed Thursday, the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) increased Saturday’s severe weather threat from marginal (1 out of 5) to slight (2 out of 5), indicating all WAFB neighborhoods should be prepared for a few strong to severe t-storms ahead of Saturday morning’s strong cold front. The severe weather threat for greater Baton Rouge will range from roughly 6 to 10 a.m., linked to a squall line ahead of the advancing cold front. The main severe threat Saturday morning will be damaging t-storm winds, although we cannot exclude a low-end potential for one or two tornadoes.

Fortunately, the front will be a relatively quick mover and should be well east of the WAFB region by midday. That means goodbye to the rain, but hello to gusty winds and steadily falling temperatures. In fact, after starting the day out in the mid 60s, temperatures will be drop to upper 40s near sunset and be at or below 40° by midnight.

It will be a cold start Sunday morning under generally fair skies, with temperatures dipping to near freezing for the Red Stick. Areas north and east of the Capital City can expect a brief, light freeze to start off Sunday. Clear skies will be the Sunday afternoon story, but temperatures will stay in the 40s through the middle of the day, with northwesterly winds making those 40s feel more like 30s by sunset.

We continue to call for a Monday morning freeze for the northern half of the WAFB region. Freeze durations will run from four to six hours for metro Baton Rouge, with freezing temperatures potentially lasting up to eight hours or more near and north of the LA/MS state line. Skies will stay mainly clear Monday, with the sunshine pushing afternoon temperatures into the 50s for the afternoon.

Unfortunately, the dry out doesn’t last long. Rain is back for Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday as the next storm system rolls in from the northwest.

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