La Nina's effect - WAFB 9 News Baton Rouge, Louisiana News, Weather, Sports

La Nina's effect

Question:

I have the impression the Baton Rouge area was under a La Niña weather effect.  Is this still true or has the pattern shifted?


Answer:

Yes, La Niña is still in effect, and is expected to remain so for the next couple of months, although a slow fade is anticipated.  And yes, Las Niñas tend to be the "dry phase" of ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation).  In fact, up until mid January, the pattern was holding true to form:  while the last two weeks have been very "wet," November, December and the first half of January were "dry."

A return to a "drier" pattern is still anticipated later in February and expected to persist into March, at least.

Now . . . all that said . . . remember that some work I did at LSU shows that most, but not all, Las Niñas (about 80%) make for drier-than-normal weather over south Louisiana from November through April.  That does not exclude:

  • (1) that roughly 1-in-5 "La Niña winters" end up wetter-than-normal in south Louisiana, and
  • (2) that departures from the La Niña winter-term "drier pattern" SHOULD be expected over the 6-month period, but that the 6-month period as a whole will tend to show a below-normal rain total.

Hope this helps!

Jay Grymes
Chief Meteorologist
WAFB Storm Team

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