FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Memorial Day weekend shaping up to be a we - WAFB 9 News Baton Rouge, Louisiana News, Weather, Sports

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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Memorial Day weekend shaping up to be a wet one

First Alert Weather (Source: WAFB) First Alert Weather (Source: WAFB)

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The WAFB Storm Team is issuing a First Alert for the potential of tropical weather development somewhere in the Gulf region over the Memorial Day weekend.

While there are still more questions than answers with regard to this potential tropical system, its occurrence during the holiday weekend - the unofficial start of summer - increases the importance of alerting WAFB viewers.

The majority of computer forecast models are showing some kind of low-pressure system moving northward from the Caribbean and getting better organized in either the eastern or central Gulf towards the latter part of the work week. Given that we do not have a system to track yet, trying to define details of direction and forecast path are all but possible.

However, a couple of models, including the ECMWF, are pointing to a landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast. Given the current uncertainty, that could mean anywhere between Sabine Pass and the central Florida Panhandle.

The Storm Team will watch this closely: stay with us all week long as we update you on model developments as they become available.

In the meantime, we still must deal with our run of hot May days as afternoon temperatures will likely remain above-normal through the rest of the work week. The First Alert Forecast calls for afternoon highs around 90° for Tuesday and Wednesday and still in the upper 80°s to near 90° for Thursday and Friday.

For those of you desperately seeking rain, there is some good news. The Storm Team Forecast has rain chances running at 40 percent or better for Tuesday and Wednesday and then climbing to 60 percent for Thursday and Friday.

With a potential for a tropical system arriving over the weekend, we will keep rain chances at 60 percent or better for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the WAFB viewing area. Of course, that may change as details become clearer.

The way things stand now, WAFB neighborhoods could see as much as 3” to 4” of rain between now and next Monday, with locally higher totals. However, should the ECMWF forecast pan-out with a slow-moving T.S. Alberto lumbering across the southern parishes, rain totals could get much larger.

For those of you planning for some beach time this holiday weekend, unfortunately, rain chances are even higher for coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Panhandle – and that is probably not what you want to hear.

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