FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Subtropical Storm Alberto expected to make - WAFB 9 News Baton Rouge, Louisiana News, Weather, Sports

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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Subtropical Storm Alberto expected to make landfall in central Gulf Coast region

First Alert Weather (Source: WAFB) First Alert Weather (Source: WAFB)

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Subtropical Storm Alberto is getting most of the weather attention regionally, and that's sure to continue through the holiday weekend. The general consensus among virtually all of the forecast models brings Alberto into the central Gulf Coast region sometime on or about Memorial Day.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast as of Friday afternoon shows a strong tropical storm with sustained winds in excess of 60 to 65 mph approaching the Mississippi/Alabama coastlines during the late afternoon or evening on Monday. But keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty also includes southeast Louisiana. While the threat of significant impacts across the WAFB area is low, it's clearly not zero at this point.

The NHC has issued Tropical Storm Watch for the southeast Louisiana coast from the Pearl River to Grand Isle, as well as lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Pearl River to the mouth of the Mississippi.

In the meantime, Friday has been a relatively busy day across southeast Louisiana with showers and thunderstorms. We even received a couple of reports of small hail on Friday afternoon.

The First Alert Forecast for Saturday looks wetter. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through Saturday at 7 p.m. for a good portion of the WAFB viewing area, including Baton Rouge. The watch is issued mainly as an alert for the potential of locally heavy downpours, but we are not anticipating widespread excessive rains.

Friday afternoon rains will subside into sunset. Plan for a mostly dry night and morning start for Saturday was sunrise temperatures around 70° for the Red Stick. The forecast for Saturday afternoon calls for a 60 to 70 percent chance of showers and storms for your backyard, with a daytime high in the mid to upper 80s. We are not expecting an all-day rain for Saturday, but passing showers and thunderstorms could result in multiple rain periods for your neighborhood through the day.

Be aware that Friday and Saturday rains are not associated with Alberto. Rather, they are a response to a very moist and unstable air mass already in place along the Gulf Coast region.

In contrast to our holiday weekend forecast in recent days, the outlook for Sunday and Memorial Day Monday is a little drier now. Rather than an outlook that calling for rain likely right through Tuesday, the Storm Team Forecast is now easing rain chances for Sunday and Monday back to 50 percent for both days.

The outlook for Tuesday calls for just a 30 percent chance of rain, with just a 20 percent chance of rain for Wednesday.

The storm Team thinking is based on the NHC forecast that keeps Alberto well to the east of Baton Rouge and the WAFB area. That puts our communities on the dry side of the system, not only reducing the chances of rain, but also reducing the amount of rain we expect over the next four to five days or so.

Our latest rainfall guidance now calls for rains have less than 2" for just about everybody between now and the middle of next week, although we can’t rule out one or two locations that could get some bigger totals thanks to slow moving thunderstorms. However, if the current forecast track for Alberto is roughly correct, many neighborhoods could see less than 1" of rain through the weekend and into next week.

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