BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - We had a cool start to the day Tuesday, as expected, with lows near 40° for many WAFB communities, but Mother Nature served up a mean looking weather curve ball, with more clouds than we expected throughout the day and better rain chances into the evening and Tuesday night than we had forecasted Monday.
If you were with us Monday, we showed you a disturbance in the coastal waters that we expected to skirt the Louisiana coast, but not move inland. Well, you guessed it, that area of disturbed weather has indeed expanded and moved farther inland than expected. We do not anticipate any heavy downpours through the evening and overnight, but instead of our 10 percent coverage that we quoted Monday, now it looks like we are talking about half of the WAFB area getting at least a little wet Tuesday night.
There's absolutely no threat of severe weather and rain totals, and most neighborhoods will come in at under 0.25", but rain is rain, and that means a busted forecast. The good news is that we will get the rain out of here before sunrise on Wednesday and our forecast for the rest of the week, the weekend, and even early next week is a dry one.
Expect skies to clear through Wednesday morning and we go to sunshine by the afternoon. The First Alert Forecast calls for morning start in the upper 40s to near 50° for the Red Stick at sunrise Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid 60s.
The Thursday through Sunday Thanksgiving weekend outlook is a fine one. Temperatures over the four days will tend towards the cool side for this time of year, and in fact, Thursday and Friday mornings will be downright cold. Our current forecast for Thanksgiving morning calls for sunrise temperatures in the mid 30s for the Capital City and that indeed could mean a light freeze for some of our more northern WAFB neighborhoods!
Sunshine will rule throughout the day on Thursday with high in the low 60s.
Black Friday will start off cold as well, with a morning start in the middle and upper 30s for metro Baton Rouge, but the day warms nicely with an afternoon high in the mid 60s under sunny skies. Pre-dawn shoppers will need to dress for cold weather, but it will be looking good as we head into Friday afternoon.
The weekend forecast also calls for tons of sunshine, with sunrise temperatures in the 40s for both weekend days. Saturday will be the warmer of the two days, with highs in the low 70s. A dry cold front will slide from north-to-south through the region between Saturday and Sunday and that will knock the temperatures back a bit for Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s.
Even the forecast for next Monday and Tuesday calls for continued rain-free days with a high in the mid to upper 60s on Monday and low 70s for Tuesday.
So what about that potential freeze on Thanksgiving morning for some WAFB communities?
It's certainly not out of the norm for freezes to occur at this time of year, especially north of the I-10/12 corridor. Depending on the years analyzed, Baton Rouge's average first fall freeze (the 50 percent date) occurs in the last ten days of November. As an easy to remember rule of thumb, Jay uses the Thanksgiving weekend has a rough estimate for the climatological average first fall freeze for the Red Stick. Therefore, a light freeze on Thanksgiving morning for areas north of the Red Stick would be about average.