As we’ve seen the past few days, Tuesday began with another round of dense fog across much of the WAFB viewing area, then returned to a very warm and somewhat muggy pattern for the afternoon. Highs Tuesday reach the low to mid 80s for most of the WAFB area, flirting with records once again.
We stayed dry Tuesday and expect that to continue into the evening and through much of the night, although cloud cover will be on the increase in the region, especially after midnight.
We won’t cool off much overnight as sunrise temperatures will be in the low 60s for the Red Stick region. Fog shouldn’t be as big of an issue for Wednesday’s morning commute, but we can’t rule out a spotty shower or two for the morning drive. Set rain chances for Wednesday morning at a mere 1 percent, so most will stay dry.
The mid-week cold front that we’ve been talking about for a while looks like it may push through metro Baton Rouge a little sooner than we have been thinking previously. In fact, winds will be northerly by sunrise on Wednesday and remain that way through the day. It looks like this front will be somewhat diffuse, meaning it will be hard to define exactly when it moves through your neighborhood. However, those north winds and the inflow of cooler, less humid continental air from the north will keep Wednesday afternoon highs in the 60s for most of the viewing area.
We do expect rain with the front, but thunderstorms will be few and far between and we do not anticipate any severe weather. In addition, most of WAFB neighborhoods are likely to get through the next 48 hours with less than 0.5” of rain. Totals may be slightly higher closer to the LA/MS state line, but we don’t anticipate enough rain anywhere to cause concern about flooding.
After that 10 percent rain chance for Wednesday morning, we’re anticipating rain coverage at just 20 to 30 percent from midday into the early evening. Our thinking right now is that the best chance for rain will be mid to late Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Just about all of the rain should be east of the WAFB region by Thursday’s sunrise.
Thursday morning starts in the low 50s for metro Baton Rouge, with afternoon temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 60s. Skies should be clearing by the afternoon and into the evening.
We’re looking for morning starts in the upper 40s for both Friday and Saturday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday and the low to mid 70s on Saturday. After a sunny Friday, plan for fair to partly cloudy skies on Saturday.
The latest extended guidance suggests a weak follow up cool front arrives on Sunday. It looks like that front will be fizzling out as it moves through the lower Mississippi Valley and effectively dissipates by the time it reaches the coastal waters. We will go with a morning start on Sunday in the upper 50s with an afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s. Set rain chances at 20 percent for Sunday afternoon. As with the Wednesday/Thursday front, Sunday’s front is unlikely to produce any active weather, nor significant rain totals.
The look into the early part of next week calls for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for Monday and Tuesday with afternoon highs for both days in the low to mid 70s.
And yes, it looks like we finally get a decent run of fall-like weather once the midweek front pushes through.
In the tropics, Tropical Storm Rina continues to spin over the central Atlantic and has begun accelerating to the north and northeast. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) latest forecast calls for Rina to strengthen slightly over the next 12 to 24 hours before succumbing to increased wind shear and a large drop in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along its track, with transitioning to a non-tropical system within the next 48 hours or so. More importantly, Rina will be no threat to any land or islands.
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