There can be no complaining about our Halloween weather across the WAFB area, and the little ghosts and goblins have a great evening of weather ahead for their trick-or treating!
We close the door on October, and although the last several days have been cooler than normal, especially the past weekend, the month will go down in the books about 1° F above normal for the viewing area. For the WAFB region as a whole, October rainfall averaged a bit below the norm, yet we saw excessive flooding in parts of the Felicianas, Point Coupee, and along the Comite River due to heavy localized rains on October 21 and 22.
Heading into November, we will open the month with days running a little warmer than normal and a bit on the rainy side too. Tuesday’s high was close to the norm for this time of year, but the First Alert Forecast through the weekend and into next week has afternoon highs in the low 80s each day for metro Baton Rouge. In addition, morning lows will be running in the 60s, generally 10° or more above the norm.
Our WAFB weather story comes in two parts: Part 1 is the return to warmer than normal temperatures, a pattern that dominated the first three weeks of October. Part 2 is about needing the umbrella for the next several days as rain is back in the forecast. We’re anticipating scattered rains for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, then a drying trend as we head into the upcoming weekend.
We are not expecting flooding rains, nor do we anticipate any widespread severe weather for the remainder of this week. Yet we cannot rule out the potential for isolated strong t-storms and localized, brief downpours. In the bigger scheme of things however, we do not anticipate any watches over the next three days and few, if any, severe weather warnings. In terms of rainfall, most WAFB neighborhoods can expect under 1” of rain between now and the weekend, with many communities seeing under 0.5” total over the next three to four days.
As for the November outlook, the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for a normal to warm month, but anticipates November rainfall to be near normal to below normal. At this time of year, modestly drier than normal weather is often helpful, not just in reducing flood risks, but also in facilitating agriculture, especially the sugarcane harvest!
In the tropics, Invest 94L is still on the board, but is now posted with just the 10 percent chance of development (as of 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon). Based on the trend, it is likely that 94L will be off the board by later Tuesday night. Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, there are no areas of pending development being watched by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).