Thursday was another lovely fall day, although warmer than it’s been for the week. Unfortunately, that is the end of the good stuff, at least for the short term. Clouds will be returning overnight and most WAFB communities can expect mostly cloudy skies and a milder morning start for Friday with sunrise temperatures in the 50s for the Red Stick.
We have been talking about it for a while: a cold front pushing through the region between the latter part of Friday and into early Saturday morning. That’s still the forecast, and the forecast timing hasn’t changed much either. Expect the front to move into the WAFB area from the northwest Friday with rain chances rising through the afternoon and into the evening. Many neighborhoods will still manage to get into the mid and upper 70s before the rains arrive, but showers and thunderstorms are likely by the late afternoon and evening hours as the front advances into the WAFB region.
That is not good news for downtown’s Live After 5 or for area high school football games. Just about everybody across the WAFB area will get rain on Friday evening, but we are not anticipating a significant severe outbreak with the front’s passage. While we cannot say there will be no severe storms on Friday evening or Friday night, we do not expect to see much in the way of watches or warnings. In addition, most neighborhoods can expect less than 1" of rain from Friday night into early Saturday morning.
The front should be to our east by Saturday’s sunrise, taking the rain with it. At this point, I still believe we will be dry by sunrise on Saturday, with skies clearing through the morning. That dry start on Saturday morning will also come with sunrise temperatures in the 40s. Expect mainly clear skies, but it’s going to be breezy and downright cool for the afternoon, with temperatures struggling to reach the 60s. That would make Saturday afternoon the coolest we’ve seen since March.
Clear skies and a very dry air mass will allow temperatures to slip down into the 30s for most neighborhoods along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for Sunday morning! And while it may not be quite as breezy on Sunday as it will be on Saturday, it still stays cool with highs on Sunday only reaching the low 60s.
Those extra cool afternoons won’t last long, however, with highs rebounding into the 70s by Monday and staying that way for next week. Monday will start off in the low 40s for metro Baton Rouge with an afternoon high in the low 70s under sunny skies. And for Tuesday, Halloween Day, afternoon highs will reach the mid 70s under fair skies, setting up a great evening. Temperatures during the “witching hours” (5 to 8 p.m. for most area neighborhoods) slip from the low 70s to the mid 60s, so that even the littlest monsters will be comfortable along the trick-or-treat trails.
Expect a sun/cloud mix on Wednesday with a 20 percent chance of rain, followed by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday.
In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area in the western Caribbean tagged as Invest 93L. NHC development chances for 93L remain a modest 40 percent over the next five days, and the latest satellite presentations certainly do not suggest anything imminent. Regardless of the regional development potential, there is almost no chance that 93L, or anything that arises from it, will become a problem for the northern Gulf Coast.
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