BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - If it weren't for the flooding this past weekend, just about everybody would be bragging about Monday's weather. Unfortunately, those big rains created quite a mess for a number of communities north, northwest, and west of the Red Stick.
The latest river forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) has the Comite at Joor cresting Monday afternoon and early evening well-above flood stage, then falling quickly Monday evening and overnight, dropping below flood stage by around midnight or so.
The LMRFC forecast for the Amite near Denham Springs calls for a crest Tuesday at mid-day just below flood stage, followed by a steady fall during the middle and latter half of the work week. Amite River forecast points below Denham Springs can expect the wave crest to head downriver, but none of the sites are expected to reach flood. However, rises along the Amite could cause problems for cul-de-sacs and one-way access roads for a number of camps and residences.
The only good news is that this week's run of dry weather will allow for water levels to fall quickly over the next couple of days, although that may not be of much comfort for those that have already suffered damage.
For the rest of us, Monday begins a run of great looking autumn weather that will continue through Thursday. After a high Monday in the low to mid 70s, clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop down into the 40s by Tuesday's sunrise for many WAFB neighborhoods. After that cool morning start, expect highs in the low to mid 70s again on Tuesday with another round of sunshine and blue skies throughout the day.
It gets even cooler for Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with lows around metro Baton Rouge expected to drop into the low 40s. Areas north and east of the Capital City could see morning starts in the upper 30s for one or both mornings - the coolest readings for most of us since March.
Sunny skies will rule on Wednesday with many neighborhoods seeing highs in the upper 60s. And while it will be a little warmer on Thursday afternoon under mostly sunny skies, that will still be a great weather day.
Gulf moisture and humidity will be on the return by Friday. Expect partly cloudy skies with a morning start in the low 50s and an afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s. In addition, be ready for isolated afternoon and evening showers. Set rain chances at 20 percent or less.
The WAFB First Alert Forecast has scattered showers and a few thunderstorms posted for the overnight hours into Saturday morning as our next cold front works through the region from the northwest. For the time being, we are posting rain chances at 50 percent or less. However, we understand that may not be much comfort for those that flooded this past weekend. That said, our current guidance shows the upcoming Friday/Saturday front as a relatively minimal rainmaker, although it will deliver a substantial cool down for the weekend.
Look for a start in the mid 40s on Saturday with the rains ending as we get through the morning hours. For Saturday afternoon, expect clearing skies with a high only in the lower 60s. And it's mainly sunny for Sunday with morning start near 40° to the lower 40s for metro Baton Rouge and an afternoon high in the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies. Even next Monday looks good, with sunrise temperatures in the low 40s and an afternoon high around 70° under mostly sunny skies.
In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is highlighting the western Caribbean for potential development towards week's end and into the weekend. Currently, there does not appear to be much there, but computer guidance from a couple of models is suggesting a disturbance could form, prompting the NHC to post the area with a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days.