Tropical Storm Don continues his march westward and will be passing the southernmost Lesser Antilles islands and entering the southeastern Caribbean during the evening hours on Tuesday.
If anything, Don is looking a bit weaker Tuesday afternoon, possibly due to wind shear and “dry” air aloft. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) still believes that steady westerly wind shear will result in the demise of Don within the next 24 hours, if not sooner.
In the meantime, the NHC has tagged the broad tropical disturbance east of Don as Invest 96L. As a reminder, an "invest" is simply an area of investigation, the tropical equivalent of "a person of interest." It does not mean the NHC is predicting the disturbance to become a tropical system, it simply means the NHC has taken notice of the area of disturbed weather. The assignment as an "invest" prompts the initiation of computer-based tropical model forecasts runs by cooperating federal, academic, and other NHC-aligned tropical forecasting groups.
Indeed, even with the upgrade to an "invest," the NHC is only posting 96L with a 30 percent chance of development over the next five days. More importantly, most of the recent computer model runs, as well as the NHC outlook keeps 96L over the open Atlantic and clear of the Caribbean islands through the next five days or more.