BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - After a mostly-dry Monday and Tuesday, we are going to change things up for the rest of the work week by bringing substantially higher rain chances into the forecast for each day through Friday.
Morning starts for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be generally dry although we can't rule out a few isolated early showers, especially closer to the coast. You can plan for sunrise temperatures in the low 70°s for all three days around the Red Stick.
For the rest of the work week, however, umbrellas are encouraged.
Plan for scattered-to-likely rain chances in the WAFB area for all three afternoons and early evenings. We don't anticipate any severe weather outbreaks of the next three days, but we can't rule out one or two strong storms developing on any of the next three days.
Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80°s for most WAFB neighborhoods with a couple locations possibly reaching the upper 80°s each afternoon, depending on when and where the rains begin each day.
While there is no real concern for severe weather outbreaks, isolated heavy downpours will have the potential of producing localized street flooding. Thankfully, we don't think that heavy rains will be widespread enough to create any serious flood concerns.
There is some good news with this "wet" forecast through Friday: the First Alert Outlook is looking considerably drier for the upcoming weekend as well as next Monday and the Fourth of July (Tuesday).
We will carry a 30% rain chance for Saturday afternoon with rain chances running at only 20% or less for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
The drier pattern will be courtesy of a weak upper-level ridging -- high-pressure aloft. The set-up will limit -- but not entirely shut-off – the ability for thundershowers to build vertically in the afternoons.
While the forecast for the four-day extended holiday (if you are lucky enough to be taking advantage!) will be a little on the "dry side" of normal for this time of year, don't be thinking that we will get a big break from our typical summer humidity. We're anticipating morning starts in the mid 70°s for the Baton Rouge area on all four days, a sign of a muggy Gulf air mass in place.
In addition, a reduction in rain chances will mean higher afternoon temperatures: expect highs to reach 90° or more for all four days. Take those high temperatures and factor in the Gulf humidity and we will be looking at peak Heat Index ("feels like") values approaching 100° each afternoon.
So make your holiday plans if you've got the time off, grab an extra bottle of sunscreen, and be careful in the heat. Remember, the Heat Index is a guideline for what it "feels like" in the shade: early afternoon sunshine can I add another 5° to 10° (or more) to that "feels like" temperature.