BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - Development chances are now up to 90% with the area of low pressure in the western Caribbean expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico.
While development is likely, most guidance suggests the system will get no stronger than a tropical storm. With that in mind, the greatest threat is likely to be heavy rain.
A track to our east would mean little rainfall here but anything to our west would put us on the wetter side of the system. Rain could start as soon as Tuesday for some, depending on the track.
Unfortunately little has changed in regards to Invest 93-L currently in the Western Caribbean. The good news is that Invest 93-L remains a poorly organized broad area of low pressure. The bad news is that it might be starting to get its act together as per the latest satellite trends. Still a ton of unanswered questions about Invest 93-L.
Meteorologist still don't have a clear idea on where it will go, how fast it will travel, and exactly how strong it will get.
We think it will become a tropical or subtropical storm (Bret) as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico late Monday just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
From there we don't have a clear idea of where it will go. Weather computer models are all over the place with potential landfalls from the Mexico / TX border all the way to the Florida Panhandle. If the track is west of Louisiana, expect a wet middle of the week. If the track is east of Louisiana, expect a mainly dry mid week.
As of right now the main concern would be heavy rain and potential flash/nuisance flooding. At this time the weather computer models don't generate a strong tropical cyclone (i.e. wind or storm surge).