BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - Weather could have big impacts on some outdoor plans this weekend.
A slow-moving storm system and its associated cold front will likely lead to several rounds of showers and t-storms through Sunday. Saturday's rain chances are posted at 60 percent, with the greatest threat of rainfall expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather posted for all of the WAFB viewing area. A Marginal Risk represents a relatively low-end threat of severe weather, but a few strong storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail will be possible. Tornado probabilities look low, but as we saw earlier this month, brief tornadoes can spin-up with little warning.
Bigger impacts to outdoor plans are expected on Sunday as rains become both more widespread and longer in duration. Scattered showers and t-storms may already be in place by the time we wake up on Sunday, with off-and-on rains likely to continue through much of the day. Sunday's severe weather threat looks low, but locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility. Most areas should see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next couple of days, with higher totals possible in some spots.
The cold front responsible for the weekend rains will likely stall near our coast by late Sunday, keeping good rain chances going into early next week. A 60 percent chance of showers and t-storms is expected on Monday with rains again becoming even more widespread on Tuesday. In fact, it's Tuesday that some of our guidance suggests will see the heaviest rains.
Rain totals averaging 3 to 6 inches are expected between now and next Wednesday morning, with locally higher amounts very possible. The National Weather Service is already indicating that a Flash Flood Watch may have to be issued at some point this weekend.
Meanwhile, officials in West Feliciana are monitoring the potential for heavy rainfall in the coming days as flood warnings are already in place for the rising Mississippi River. While local rainfall has a negligible impact on Mississippi River levels, neighborhoods around Bayou Sara are already keeping a close eye on nearby rising waters. Any heavy rain that falls over the next several days could increase the flood threat around Bayou Sara.