BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - Invest 91-L remained poorly organized over land, but has now moved into the open waters of the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
Only two weeks into the official start of hurricane season, areas along the Gulf Coast have been keeping a close eye on the disorganized swirl of clouds over the Yucatan Peninsula through most of the weekend.
A storm complex is given an invest identifier when it's not quite organized to be classified as a tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane), but is more organized than a normal area of low pressure. As of the National Hurricane Center's 7 p.m. advisory, Invest 91-L is given an 80% chance of development into a tropical depression during the next two days.
A hurricane hunter aircraft investigated 91-L Sunday evening. The flight did not find a closed center of circulation. It did detect tropical storm forced winds, but those were imbedded in t-storms very far removed from the believed center of circulation. Another hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to peek inside the storm Monday morning.
91-L's biggest issue at the moment is "wind shear". Wind shear is being caused by an upper level low that is sitting in the Central Gulf of Mexico. This upper level low will begin to move out of the way during the day Monday allowing for a more conducive environment.
This will give 91-L a small window to strengthen and get better organized as it moves quickly to the west-northwest across the South Central Gulf of Mexico. Weather models as of Sunday night are split as to whether 91-L will have enough time to reach tropical storm status before it makes landfall.
What the weather models do agree on is the projected track of 91-L. All reliable weather model guidance forecasts 91-L to move into SE Texas somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston. This means Southeast Louisiana will not see any impacts from 91-L.
This will be a rain maker for an already soggy part of Texas. Model guidance moves 91-L quickly across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas sometime early Tuesday.
Once again this storm poses no threat to SE Louisiana. It has a very high chance of becoming Tropical Depression #2 sometime Monday.