BATON ROUGE, LA (WAFB) - We await a possible round of severe weather here in South Louisiana. The threat will primarily exist late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has placed the entire WAFB viewing area under an "Enhanced" risk for severe weather with their Saturday morning forecast package. The enhanced category is a new risk from SPC. It means conditions are more favorable than a "Slight" risk but not as favorable as a "Moderate" risk. In essence SPC and the WAFB First Alert Storm Team expect some form of severe weather (t-storm wind damage, hail, tornado) to occur across the viewing area.
A warm front will move through South Louisiana Saturday evening pushing warm, moist, and unstable air into the region. This could trigger some isolated to scattered t-storms beginning after 7 PM. These storms would hold the greatest potential for tornadic activity. There remains some uncertainty as to how many (if any) of these warm front triggered storms SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi will see. These storms would be a sort of "round 1" of the severe weather threat. The most likely threat for severe weather will exist in the form a squall line and could possibly be considered "round 2". The squall line will develop in central Texas Saturday morning and push East through the day. This squall line's main threat would be strong damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, but it could produce a tornado too. The line of strong to severe t-storms should push into the Baton Rouge metro area around sunrise Sunday (6-7 AM).
A major concern with this event will be the timing. Many people will be still sleeping which highlights the fact of having some way of receiving weather alerts to stay alert to changing weather patterns in your immediate area. Round 1 could start as early as 7 PM and the threat could remain for severe weather overnight through mid morning as round 2 pushes through.